Ex-general, diplomat vie to replace Israeli Olmert

By Allyn Fisher-Ilan - Analysis

JERUSALEM (Reuters) - A party vote to choose a successor to Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert will be a close race that may stall Middle East diplomacy and affect the nuclear standoff with Iran.

The two top contenders in the September 17 centrist Kadima party ballot are Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, Israel's chief negotiator with the Palestinians, and Iranian-born Deputy Prime Minister Shaul Mofaz, a former army chief.

Livni, 50, a former Mossad spy who would be the first woman premier since Golda Meir in the 1970s, has the edge in polls, with one on Thursday giving her a 21 point lead over Mofaz.

But such surveys have been wrong before, especially on party primaries. Analysts see a more open race, amid signs of mounting support among Kadima members for Mofaz -- seeking to become the first Israeli prime minister of non-European descent.

Whoever wins could take weeks to build a new government leaving Israel, and the U.S.-brokered talks with Palestinians, in political limbo, with Olmert staying on as caretaker leader.

There is also a possibility that neither candidate would actually end up becoming prime minister.

Analysts say both Livni and Mofaz, lackluster speakers with limited political experience, may fail to piece together a new coalition among rival religious and left-wing parties.

If that happens, parliament could step in and call a snap election. That could be held early in the new year.

Olmert, who has pledged to step down after months of police investigations into graft allegations, would remain caretaker. But, like the outgoing U.S. president George W. Bush, sponsor of the latest round of peace negotiations with the Palestinians, he would be a lame duck, bereft of lasting political clout.

"It's a part of a national soap opera that has taken hold of Israeli politics," said political scientist Orit Galili-Zucker, of Bar-Ilan University near Tel Aviv, of the political stalemate spurred by Olmert's slow-motion departure.

LIMITED EXCITEMENT

The Kadima contest has garnered limited public interest so far. Neither taciturn candidate seems capable of riveting an audience and only a fraction of Israelis can vote -- an estimated 70,0000 party members, one percent of the population.

There are no stickers or posters on public display, no jingles on the airwaves, little advertising and the candidates have kept their public rallies to a minimum.

When they do speak, both Livni and Mofaz tend to put a hawkish spin on their support hitherto for peacemaking with Palestinians, mindful their political futures are also clouded by the rising popularity of rightist leader Benjamin Netanyahu.

Opinion polls show Netanyahu, a former prime minister, could defeat either Livni or Mofaz if an election were held soon.