Georgia's Saakashvili safe for now despite losses

By Mark Trevelyan - Analysis

TBILISI (Reuters) - Despite leading Georgia into a disastrous war with Russia and losing two of the country's provinces, President Mikheil Saakashvili looks politically secure for now as Georgians unite in adversity.

The U.S.-educated lawyer projects a pro-market, media savvy image but his rough treatment of opponents last November and harsh anti-Russian rhetoric has alarmed some in the West who fear his impetuous style is unsuited for the volatile Caucasus.

Saakashvili was elected on a pledge of restoring rebel regions to central control.

Now Russian tanks and troops have turned his dream of restoring Georgia's territorial integrity into a nightmare of crushing military defeat and perhaps permanent division.

"It's a moment of national solidarity. The opposition has called a moratorium on open differences with the government because the country is occupied," said Lawrence Sheets, Caucasus programme director for the International Crisis Group.

"I think there will be a few months before people think about making political trouble for the government."

Saakashvili's August 7 attempt to retake Georgia's rebel, pro-Russian region of South Ossetia by force was routed within a few days.

Some Western officials had privately said Saakashvili shared some of the blame for triggering the initial crisis by allowing himself to be provoked by Russia.

But by backing the secession of the rebel regions of South Ossetia Abkhazia and offering them its protection, Moscow crossed a red line that prompted strong and unanimous condemnation from the United States and Europe.

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In an interview with Reuters in the early hours of Wednesday, Saakashvili appeared visibly energized by the strength of international support.

"The last thing I wanted to have here is being vindicated in this way. But the point here is at least it's high time to open your eyes and see what we are dealing with," he said.

Asked if he saw any threat to his political position, he answered quickly and confidently.

"I believe our people is consolidated as never before. On that point, Russia has grossly miscalculated. The point here is, it's not about me any more. The nation has got more mature, democracy will become more vibrant and the long-term effect will be exactly the opposite to what they intended."

In a flavor of the national mood, Georgian television repeatedly played a montage of images of civilian deaths from Russian bombing raids, accompanied by text ridiculing Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and his predecessor, Vladimir Putin.