Cuba's Castro may soon end mystery over his future

By Anthony Boadle

HAVANA (Reuters) - A year and a half after he last appeared in public, the mystery of ailing Cuban leader Fidel Castro's political future could be revealed later this month.

Will the 81-year-old Castro call it a day or will he hang on to power until the end?

On February 24, Cuba's National Assembly legislature will meet to ratify the country's top executive body, the Council of State. The council's president is Cuba's head of state and the meeting could mark the end to Castro's 49-year grip on power.

He underwent emergency intestinal surgery in July 2006 and handed over control "temporarily" to his brother Raul. Since then, Castro has only been seen in video and pictures looking gaunt and frail, and could now seize the moment to formally put Raul in charge of the communist government.

Raul Castro, 76, has raised expectations of economic changes to kick-start an inefficient state-run economy and improve the daily lot of Cubans, and analysts say a formal transfer of power would allow him to push through reforms.

But they are not sure it will happen.

"I think we will see the same old faces in the same old places," said a skeptical European ambassador.

The seasoned diplomat said he expected Castro to be proclaimed president and then cede power again on an interim basis to Raul Castro.

"The February 24 parliamentary meeting provides the perfect opportunity for the Cuban leadership to resolve once and for all the mystery surrounding Fidel's future. However, it is not clear they will take it," said Dan Erikson, an expert on Cuba at the Inter-American Dialogue think tank in Washington.

He said many of Cuba's top leaders would no doubt like to see a formal transfer of power to a younger generation, while Fidel Castro takes on a more ceremonial role.

Castro has kept himself in the public mind writing prolific quantities of articles published by Cuba's state newspapers and repeatedly broadcast on radio and television.

In December, the bearded "Comandante" hinted that he would hang up his gloves, writing that he had no intention of clinging to power or standing in the way of younger leaders.

But so far, he and his brother have kept their cards close to their chests, and kept the country guessing.

FRUSTRATED YOUTH

Castro's retirement from political office would close an era that began when he came to power in an armed revolution in 1959 and turned Cuba into a Soviet ally off the U.S. coast in the midst of the Cold War.