Morales seen winning Bolivia recall vote

By Simon Gardner

LA PAZ (Reuters) - Bolivian President Evo Morales is expected to survive a recall vote this weekend but a political crisis in South America's poorest country may intensify as right-wing opponents try to block his socialist reforms.

Morales and eight of Bolivia's nine provincial governors face Sunday's recall votes, which Morales ordered in a bid to undermine the governors and sap momentum from autonomy movements in eastern provinces.

Bolivia's first indigenous leader and a former coca farmer, Morales hopes a recall win will allow him to relaunch reforms such as nationalizations and land redistribution in the landlocked Andean country.

"I'm going to vote for him because he does good things for peasant farmers," said Ignacia Cordero, a wheat and potato farmer from El Alto near La Paz, dressed in a woolen hat and traditional multilayered, multicolored skirts.

"He gives money to the aged, and for children too," the 67-year-old added, her four-year-old grandson slung over her back in a piece of woven cloth. "He won't lose. There are plenty of farmers like me who will vote for him."

But while Morales remains popular, his reforms have increasingly divided the country and protests forced him to suspend several campaign events this week.

He has already nationalized energy, mining and telecommunications businesses and is distributing some of the proceeds to Bolivia's poorest in the form of handouts.

He is also pushing for a new constitution to give more power to Bolivian Indians and has strong support among Aymara and Quechua ethnic groups in and around La Paz, where he is seen as a champion of the two-thirds of the country's 9 million people who are poor.

POLITICAL DEADLOCK

Morales, 48, could emerge politically stronger from a recall win, especially if a couple of opposition governors lose. But protests could well follow the vote, and he will still need to negotiate with his opponents.

"Bolivia has been in a state of political stalemate for over a year, and no matter how the votes count up after Sunday, Bolivia will still be in a place of political stalemate," said Jim Shultz, executive director of the Democracy Center think-tank in Cochabamba.

"We are likely to see continued battles between the president and regional governments over what kind of decentralization and autonomy takes place. Land reform will probably continue to be stalled completely, and there will be ongoing fights over how to divide up the expanding pie of natural gas and oil revenue."

Morales' foes paint him as a madman and traitor who is too close to Venezuela's Hugo Chavez, the vocal leader of a group of socialist presidents in Latin America.

Morales was visibly shaken by protests across the country on Tuesday, when two tin miners were killed and an airport was stormed, forcing Chavez and Argentine President Cristina Fernandez to abandon a visit to sign energy accords.

A day later, Morales was forced to suspend a campaign rally in the eastern, opposition-run city of Santa Cruz after anti-government protesters blocked roads and surrounded a stadium where the event was to take place.