Many in Brazil want third Lula term but he says no

By Ana Nicolaci da Costa

BRASILIA (Reuters) - A slight majority of Brazilians favor changing the constitution to allow President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva to run for a third consecutive term in the 2010 election, a poll showed on Monday.

Lula, whose popularity rose in April to its highest since he took office in 2003, would also be the favorite candidate in the election if the constitution was amended, it said.

Lula has repeatedly said he is not interested in a third term but Vice President Jose Alencar raised the possibility this month of changing the constitution so Lula could run.

The poll, carried out by the Sensus Institute for the National Transport Confederation, showed 50.4 of respondents were in favor of such a change, while 45.4 percent were against and 4.3 percent undecided.

"Technically it's a draw but there's distinct support for a possible third term," said Sensus director Ricardo Guedes.

If it went through, 51.1 percent of the population would vote for Lula. Sao Paulo state Gov. Jose Serra from the opposition Brazilian Social Democracy Party, so far the favorite for the 2010 race, came second with 35.7 percent.

In a newspaper interview published on Sunday, Lula reiterated he not was not seeking to run again.

"I believe it is unthinkable, if democracy in Brazil is to be consolidated, to think about a third mandate ... and that it is bad for democracy in Brazil," he was quoted as saying in the Correio Braziliense.

His chief of staff, Dilma Rousseff of the Workers' Party, and Ciro Gomes of the Brazilian Socialist Party, were two possible candidates he favored, he said.

Lula's personal popularity reached a high of 69.3 percent and approval of his government was 57.5 percent. Guedes attributed this to an economic boom that has lowered inflation, given people more spending power and cut poverty.

Lula has bounced back from a series of corruption scandals that marred his first term as the leader of Latin America's largest country and forced the resignation of several ministers. However, no strong favorite has emerged from within the ruling Workers' Party to succeed him.

The poll showed that if Lula did not run again, Serra would be the favorite with 36.4 percent, followed by Gomes with 16.9 percent, leftist Heloisa Helena with 11.7 percent, and Rousseff trailing with 6.2 percent.

Serra lost to Lula in the 2002 election and did not stand in 2006. A former health minister who championed a highly lauded anti-AIDS program, he is one of Brazil's best-known politicians and favors a strong state role in economic policy.

The poll was carried out between April 21 and 25, surveying 2,000. It had a margin of error of 3 percentage points.

(Writing by Angus MacSwan; editing by Todd Benson and Doina Chiacu)