Olympic protests pose quandary for Chinese forces

By Lindsay Beck

BEIJING (Reuters) - Banners are banned, flags restricted and even t-shirts will be scrutinized during Beijing's Olympic Games.

But the list of grievances against host China from both its own citizens and activists abroad remains as long as ever, raising the question of how an authoritarian state will respond to protests when the eyes of the world are on it.

"They're caught in between their desire to prevent all incidents and their ability not to appear to be going overboard at the same time," said Scott Harrison, managing director of Pacific Strategies and Assessments, a risk consultancy.

Many suspect the prospect for large-scale protest in the capital is slim.

China has mobilized a 100,000-strong security force to monitor the Games, a team that includes police, the paramilitary People's Armed Police and the People's Liberation Army, supplemented by volunteer and private security.

Some 300,000 surveillance cameras will also keep watch over the city and helicopters will be circling overhead.

What is more probable than mass demonstrations are flash protests, in which a small group unfurls a banner briefly, before likely being overwhelmed by security forces.

In that case, if the group in question are not Chinese citizens, analysts say China is likely to react simply by removing them from the country as quickly as possible.

"Straight to the airport, I think that's what would happen," said Nicholas Bequelin, a researcher at Human Rights Watch in Hong Kong.

Anti-China demonstrations dogged the international leg of the torch relay earlier this year, with thousands pouring onto the streets of London, Paris and San Francisco to protest against China's crackdown in Tibet.

NOTHING LEFT TO LOSE

Still, what if the group involved are athletes? What if they are Chinese? In those cases, the response would be less predictable.

Many think China's own citizens are less likely to be involved, not because they are without grievances, but because of the huge patriotism that is accompanying the Games, meaning such demonstrations would be unlikely to win sympathy from the Chinese public.

The exception, though, could be Falun Gong, the spiritual movement banned in China which shocked authorities when 10,000 of its members besieged the Zhongnanhai leadership compound in a 1999 dawn protest.

"They look like everybody else. They coordinate very well. They can use text messages to spontaneously show up at any time or place," said one foreign analyst who asked not to be named because of the sensitivity of the issue.