S.Korea parliament poll key for president's reforms

By Jonathan Thatcher

SEOUL (Reuters) - South Koreans elect a new parliament on Wednesday and determine whether President Lee Myung-bak will be able to push through his plans for radical change to revitalize Asia's fourth largest economy.

Opinion polls suggest his conservative Grand National Party (GNP) will shunt aside the liberals as the dominant power in the national assembly despite rapid disenchantment with Lee's government less than two months after he took office.

But some analysts say vitriolic infighting in the run-up to this week's election might have so split the conservative party that even with a majority, Lee could find the new parliament is very far from compliant when it takes office in late May.

"I think the GNP is likely to garner a majority. But there are still a lot of internal problems," said Korea University political science professor Lee Nae-young.

Latest opinion polls suggest the GNP will pick up at least 160 seats in the 299-seat assembly with its main opponents, the left-of-centre United Democratic Party (UDP), lucky to get 100.

The campaign has been marked by an absence of issues and even communist North Korea's furious rhetoric over the past week with threats to attack the South has been ignored by voters, long used to the sabre-rattling of their hermit neighbor.

"North Korea is not an issue for people. There are no decisive issues in this election," said Hahm Sung Deuk, public administration professor at Korea University.

A poll in one local daily, the Hankyoreh, showed that about half of voters would be influenced by the state of the economy.

Lee's government hopes to lift economic growth this year to 6 percent from 5 percent last year -- an optimistically high growth goal say analysts. Economists see growth falling to 4.8 percent, the lowest since 4.2 percent in 2005.

Lee has pledged to sweep away the bureaucracy stifling business and to make the economy more open and competitive.

But if the GNP fails to win a majority, analysts said Lee's hope for rapid change will almost certainly be slowed by parliamentary squabbling.

IN-FIGHTING

The GNP has had a faltering start even by the unforgiving political standards of South Korea, which has seen every president in 20 years of democratic elections leave office with his reputation in shreds.

Lee's transition team fumbled over choices for the new cabinet and over policy changes. And, with unfortunate timing for Lee, the damage from a global downturn began to look far more dangerous to South Korea just as he took office.

"It's not necessarily the fault of the new president, but there are no signs of recovery and people blame the new president," said Korea University's Lee.