FACTBOX: Evolving scenarios for Pakistan's split vote

(Reuters) - As bad as results in Pakistan's parliamentary elections look for President Pervez Musharraf on Tuesday, the former commando could shore up his position for some time more by dividing his victorious rivals.

Shortly after 1 p.m. (3 a.m. EST), results for 248 of 342 seats in the National Assembly were in, according to Geo News, an independent television channel.

It showed the Pakistan People's Party of assassinated former prime minister Benazir Bhutto leading with 85, the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) of Nawaz Sharif, a former prime minister rigidly opposed to Musharraf, on 64, and the pro-Musharraf Pakistan Muslim League (PML) a distant third with 37.

Here are some of the possible scenarios, though the probabilities will alter as the count goes on;

-- If, as seems likely, Bhutto's PPP emerges as the largest party in the assembly without getting a majority, it will be in the market for coalition partners.

-- Musharraf's camp will be downhearted, but probably not surprised by the scale of the PML's losses and will be hoping that the party musters enough seats to hold some leverage when the PPP assesses who it needs for partners.

-- An alliance between the PPP and the party of Nawaz Sharif, the prime minister Musharraf toppled in a coup in 1999, would probably lead to Musharraf's swift exit.

The president could be impeached, or made to seek a pardon from parliament for invoking emergency rule last November, or the government could try to reinstate the judges Musharraf fired before they could annul his re-election last October.

The possibility of Musharraf resigning if this scenario took shape cannot be discounted.