Sydney heat deaths to soar due to climate change

By Michael Perry

SYDNEY (Reuters) - Climate change in Sydney will cause a significant rise in heat-related deaths of people over 65 years of age by 2050, as Australia's biggest city suffers more heat waves, bushfires and floods, a new environment report says.

The report by Australia's premier scientific body, the Commonwealth Scientific & Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), forecast heat-related deaths for elderly people would rise from the current 176 a year to 1,312 by 2050.

"This might sound like a doomsday scenario, but it is one that we must control," said New South Wales state premier Morris Iemma in releasing the report on Wednesday.

Australia is already feeling the brunt of global warming with the worst drought in 100 years eating into economic growth.

The CSIRO report found Sydney's maximum temperature was expected to rise 1.6 degrees Celsius by 2030 and 4.8 degrees by 2070 and average rainfall will drop by 40 percent by 2070.

The report said if temperatures rose by just 1 degree and rainfall fell by 5 percent, Sydney's four million residents would no longer enjoy a costal climate but feel as if they were living in a hot rural town some 175 km (110 miles) away.

Rising sea levels will result in coastal erosion of up to 22 meters (66 feet) for a strip of beaches from Collaroy to Narrabeen in Sydney's north, eating away at many multi-million dollar homes now perched on the edge of the beach.

An increase in evaporation of up to 24 percent by 2070 and lower water flows in streams and rivers could adversely impact the city's water quality.

CALL FOR CARBON TRADING

The CSIRO report was "frightening reading", said Iemma, who called on Australian Prime Minister John Howard to commit to major reductions in greenhouse gases.

Australia was one of the few nations allowed to increase emissions under Kyoto, which obliges about 40 nations to cut the emission of carbon dioxide and other gases by at least 5.2 percent below 1990 levels by 2008-12.

Prime Minister John Howard refuses to sign Kyoto, saying it is unworkable without the participation of major polluters India and China. Australia, one of the world's major coal exporters, is the world's 10th largest emitter of greenhouse gases.

"The Commonwealth can no longer put its head in the sand on this issue. It's time the prime minister committed to reaching the targets we have set in NSW to combat climate change," Iemma said.

NSW has set a target of 15 percent renewable energy by 2020 and a 60 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

Iemma called on the Australian government to introduce a national emissions trading system to reduce greenhouse gases.