Japan by-election holds clues to PM Fukuda's fate

By Linda Sieg

IWAKUNI, Japan (Reuters) - Voter Kunio Fukuda wants straight answers for tough questions from candidates battling in a heated by-election in southwestern Japan, the outcome of which will likely affect the prime minister's fate far away in Tokyo.

"There is a lot of anxiety about the future -- pensions, jobs -- and we want politicians to show us their vision for how to cope with these issues," said Fukuda, 59, as he waited for the ruling party candidate to give a speech in Iwakuni City, some 1,000 km (600 miles) from the capital.

The race between Shigetaro Yamamoto, backed by the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), and the Democratic Party's Hideo Hiraoka, to fill a lower house seat is being watched for clues to whether Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda, 71, can hold onto his job.

The Japanese leader's support rates have sunk below 30 percent in some surveys due to his inability to get policies through a divided parliament, where the Democrats and smaller allies control the upper house and can delay laws.

"If the LDP loses, Fukuda is at risk," Yukihisa Fujita, a Democratic Party upper house lawmaker who was in Iwakuni stumping for Hiraoka, told Reuters at Hiraoka's headquarters.

"Moves (in the LDP) to replace him will speed up because it will be clear he can't win elections," Fujita said, echoing the view of political analysts back in Tokyo.

In a sign of Fukuda's sagging popularity, Yamamoto's campaign office manager initially said the prime minister had not been asked to visit the mountainous district, a mix of industry, farming and commerce that is home to a U.S. Marine base and where many residents feel left behind by Japan's urban-led growth.

On Tuesday, though, a Yamamoto supporter announced to a 3,500-strong crowd that Fukuda would campaign locally next week, apparently at the request of party lawmakers.

Reflecting the high stakes in Tokyo, ruling party heavyweights such as former foreign minister Taro Aso, tipped as a likely successor to Fukuda, and celebrity lawmakers, including a former Olympic skier and a female pro-wrestler, are stumping for Yamamoto, a former bureaucrat with little name recognition.

OZAWA AT RISK

The results of the April 27 vote could also have serious implications for Democratic Party leader Ichiro Ozawa, 65, who has made no secret of his desire to force an early general election in hopes of breaking the LDP's six-decade grip on power.

No lower house election need be held until September 2009, but some pundits say the prime minister could have to call one sooner to seek a mandate to break the political gridlock.

"If Hiraoka loses, discontent with Ozawa's leadership will increase," Fujita said, noting some in the party were already unhappy over Ozawa's willingness to discuss a "grand coalition" with Fukuda last year and with what they see as his autocratic style. His party rejected the idea of a coalition.

Power struggles back in Tokyo aside, for some Iwakuni voters, the issues are pretty simple.

"The new mayor just won an election with LDP support and this time I'd like the LDP to win again, because it will be easier to improve the city with subsidies and such," said Seiko Nukui, a 43-year-old mother of twins eating burgers and fries.