Next Japan PM faces parliament fight

By Linda Sieg

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's Yasuo Fukuda looks likely to cruise to victory in a ruling party leadership race on Sunday to become the next prime minister. Then comes the hard part.

The 71-year-old Fukuda, seen as an experienced moderate who can avoid the missteps that forced his predecessor Shinzo Abe to resign, could well get a boost in public opinion polls after his expected confirmation as prime minister next week, analysts say.

But Japan's next leader faces a divided parliament, where combative opposition parties control the upper house, as well as conflicting pressures to help out those left behind by recent economic reforms while also reining in a huge public debt.

"Politics is the art of the possible and unfortunately, the possibilities are very limited," said Jesper Koll, president of investment advisory firm Tantallon Research Japan.

"That's the real political risk -- not getting things done."

Abe, who turned 53 on Friday, abruptly announced his resignation last week after a year in office during which he improved ties with China but was plagued by scandals and gaffes by his ministers that contributed to a humiliating election rout.

The bland and bespectacled Fukuda, the son of a former prime minister and a proponent of warmer ties with Asian neighbors, quickly won the backing of most ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) factions. He is expected to easily defeat former foreign minister Taro Aso in Sunday's LDP leadership election.

The victor is sure to become prime minister by virtue of the ruling coalition's huge majority in parliament's powerful lower house.

The hawkish Aso -- a fan of "manga" comic books who casts himself as a strong leader -- saw his early lead in the LDP race evaporate suddenly, partly because of his close ties to Abe.

"Aso is part of the old Abe regime. No matter how much he jokes and talks about 'manga', he's still no change," said Chuo University political science professor Steven Reed.

"With Fukuda, going back to the old ways looks like change."

Both Fukuda and Aso have pledged to pay more heed to those left behind by economic reforms begun under Abe's predecessor, the charismatic Junichiro Koizumi, whose cuts in wasteful public works spending won plaudits from many voters but angered traditional LDP backers in rural areas.

BREAD, BUTTER AND NAVAL MISSIONS

Abe's conservative agenda including a bolder global security role for Japan and more patriotism in the schools will almost certainly take a back seat under the next Japanese leader.

"Voters want people to deal with issues close to their hearts, like pensions and the budget," Koll said.