More show than substance in Lithuania vote

By Patrick Lannin and Nerijus Adomaitis

VILNIUS (Reuters) - Parliament is the least trusted institution in Lithuania, so the appeal of a fresh face is strong. That is why the host of an "American Idol"-style show may do well in Sunday's election.

Founded by talent show presenter Arunas Valinskas just a few months ago, the National Resurrection Party scored 10 percent in a recent poll of people who planned to vote, which would make it fifth biggest in the 141-seat assembly.

It would also give the host of "Stars Gate" a seat.

Along with former Lithuanian president Rolandas Paksas -- a stunt pilot and the only European leader to be removed from office by impeachment -- and Russian-born millionaire Viktor Uspaskich -- nicknamed the "Gherkin King" after one of his food businesses -- he will spice up the poll.

But with turnout set to be feeble as this small Baltic state votes in the eye of a global financial storm, the outcome may well seem irrelevant to a population grappling with inflation and heading toward a sharp slowdown.

"It's a dialogue of the deaf and the blind," wrote columnist Vytautas Bruveris recently in daily Lietuvos rytas, saying the parties lack clear positions, particularly about how to tackle the financial crisis or health care and education reform.

Older parties like the Social Democrats, the main ruling coalition partner, and the center-right opposition Homeland Union are struggling for support: inflation has surged this year to peak at 12.5 percent in June, easing slightly by September.

Lithuania's economic growth has remained robust, at 5 percent in the second quarter, but analysts predict it will slow sharply, possibly facing a hard landing as in neighboring Latvia and Estonia.

Whoever wins the election will also have to try to allay mistrust of giant neighbor Russia -- heightened by Moscow's recent conflict with Georgia -- and keep the country on track for possible adoption of the euro in 2011.

"Elections which are held to enforce what the government has decided already have been seen further East," said columnist Bruveris, implying Lithuania's democracy -- officially in place since 1991 -- may go the way of elections in Russia.

Critics of Russia have said recent elections were carefully stage-managed, with little coverage of opposition figures.

Voters in Lithuania have a choice of 16 parties. In the October 12 first round, they will choose from electoral lists and single-mandate constituencies. The October 26 run-off is for single-mandate constituencies where no one wins more than 50 percent.

Analysts say the center-right opposition Homeland Union, led by former Prime Minister Andrus Kubilius, is leading in opinion polls and might become the biggest party in parliament, but could have difficulty finding allies for a coalition.

This could leave the Social Democrats again in the driving seat, despite coming fourth in a recent opinion poll.

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