Influence wanes for followers of Iraq's Sadr

By Peter Graff

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Much of the giant square where followers of Moqtada al-Sadr gather in their thousands on Fridays to pray is now taken up by an Iraqi army base, surrounded by concrete blast walls and watchtowers.

For perhaps the first time since the fiery cleric burst onto the political scene by leading two uprisings against U.S. forces in 2004, it is now possible to imagine a future for Iraq in which he plays only a limited political role.

On a weekday, the square in Baghdad's Sadr City slum is empty. An Iraqi soldier peers from a spot next to an armored vehicle, parked beneath the gun turrets of the new base, just opposite the headquarters of the young cleric's movement.

Inside the building from which they once wielded unrivalled sway over the slum's 2 million people, Sadr's followers gripe about the government troops who arrived six months ago.

"They lied to us," bemoans Abu Ammar al-Saadi, a tribal leader whose family holds senior positions in the movement.

"The government said 'We just want to enter to arrest some wanted people.' Not to establish bases. And after that they came and built bases in Sadr City."

Six months after U.S. and Iraqi government forces drove Sadr's once-feared Mehdi Army militia fighters off the streets in Sadr City and south Iraq, the cleric's movement is hemmed in.

Sadr himself has not appeared in public for months and is widely believed to have decamped to Iran.

Last year he pulled his cabinet members from the ruling coalition. This year he largely disbanded his Mehdi Army. Together, the two developments mean he now wields neither a share of national political power nor might on the streets.

With the signing last week of a pact requiring U.S. forces to leave within three years, the government is now claiming to have achieved Sadr's signature political objective without him.

"There is certainly less room" in Iraqi politics for Sadr, said Reidar Visser, a Norwegian historian and expert on southern Iraq's Shi'ite communities. "It does seem as if Sadr is struggling in keeping control of his movement right now."

PASSIONATE SUPPORT

The cleric still inspires passionate reverence, especially among the impoverished, displaced southern Shi'ite tribespeople who crowd the rubbish-choked slum, where graffiti denounces the U.S. "occupation" and promises victory of the Mehdi Army.

Sadr's young, black-bearded face glares down from countless posters, alongside his white-bearded father and grey-bearded great uncle -- both Shi'ite ayatollahs who became widely adulated martyrs when they were killed under Saddam Hussein.

Black flags hang everywhere, marking the recent anniversary of his father's death, proof of devotion for his family name.