SCENARIOS: Possible outcomes to Zimbabwe's crisis

By Matthew Tostevin

LONDON (Reuters) - Zimbabwe's crisis is worsening rapidly in the absence of agreement on implementing a power-sharing deal between President Robert Mugabe and opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai.

Below are some possible scenarios:

STALEMATE CONTINUES

* Zimbabwe's economy and social system appear rapidly headed toward total breakdown, highlighted by a cholera outbreak that has killed over 560 people and by clashes earlier this week between Zimbabweans and angry soldiers.

* Street protests in Harare Wednesday were another sign of the growing tensions in a country where nobody has money to buy food or meet other basic needs. Although the protests have been small and easily suppressed by police with batons, the weight of despair is clearly growing.

* Central bank efforts to print more money are only adding to stratospheric inflation. With exports collapsing, there is nothing to back the currency. Output of gold, which had been a third of exports, has tumbled as the crisis shuts mines.

* A worried army is taking measures to curb "rogue soldiers" after the disturbances. While there is no sign the army dissent amounts to a mutiny, the rank-and-file is suffering alongside other Zimbabweans and could potentially be a threat to the government as well as to public order.

* The confrontation between police and the rampaging soldiers earlier this week also raised the risk of trouble between forces once reputed for discipline and cohesion.

* There is no obvious breaking point, but the New Year has traditionally been a time of high expenditure for Zimbabweans. School fees and other costs fall due then for many. The government has lifted import duties on basic commodities to help make them more available for Christmas, state media said.

* The clock is certainly ticking on chances for the power-sharing deal.

RIVALS AGREE

* The spiraling crisis will increase pressure on both sides for agreement, although Tsvangirai's opposition Movement for Democratic Change has said it will be another two weeks before it is even discussed again.

* Tsvangirai has been holding out for the home affairs ministry, which controls the police, but the most on offer has been joint control. The crisis could put greater pressure on him to avoid being seen as the obstacle, but there is no sign yet that either he or Mugabe will budge.

* If they do agree on a power-sharing cabinet, they could face a new struggle -- reaching compromise on economic policy to ease daily hardships and persuade Western donors that reforms are in store so that they pump money into the country.

* Mugabe has said he will stick to policies such as seizing white-owned farms and plans to nationalize foreign-owned banks and mines -- the last thing donors and investors want. Tsvangirai promises free-market policies.