Pakistan may outsmart India in diplomatic poker

By Simon Denyer - Analysis

NEW DELHI (Reuters) - India may be frustrated and even outwitted by Pakistan over the Mumbai attacks, after placing its faith in diplomacy and the support of the United States.

New Delhi has responded to the attacks on its soil with a determined diplomatic offensive, trusting Washington and ultimately Barack Obama to force Pakistan's hand.

It could be disappointed, but is unlikely to vent its frustration through military action, analysts and diplomats say.

"Pakistan has been able to obfuscate the issue, which is testimony to its chutzpah," said Indian security analyst Uday Bhaskar.

"It is also a reflection of the degree to which the major powers are complicit in allowing the Pakistani establishment to engage in this kind of double-speak.

"India will have to temper its own expectation of what the international community can deliver."

Monday, India handed evidence to Pakistan and other countries which it said showed Pakistani militants carried out the November attack on Mumbai, and Home Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram will take the dossier to Washington this week.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh kept up pressure Tuesday, saying the attack must have had support from "official agencies" in Pakistan and accusing Islamabad of "whipping up war hysteria."

But with Obama and the West depending on Pakistani support for a planned troop surge in Afghanistan, there are limits to how far the world will twist Islamabad's arm.

Immediately after the attack, India won what it called "very, very heartening" international support, but Pakistan has since had some success in obfuscating the issue by raising the threat of Indian military retaliation.

Its people have largely united against India, and its army suddenly seems indispensable again. But there are critical voices -- Pakistan's main human rights group accused its government Saturday of being in a "state of denial."

INDIAN DEMANDS UNLIKELY TO BE MET

India has demanded Pakistan pursue investigations to their conclusion and hand over the organizers to Indian justice.

It is a demand South Asian regional agreements back -- that terrorist acts should be prosecuted in the nation where they occur -- but not one many analysts or diplomats expect to be met.

"Handing over Pakistani nationals to Indian custody, I don't think the Pakistani government can survive that humiliating demand," said Rasul Bakhsh Rais, a professor at the Lahore University of Management Sciences.