SCENARIOS: What next after India presents Mumbai evidence?

By Simon Denyer

NEW DELHI (Reuters) - India presented a dossier of material to Pakistan this week which it said showed that Pakistani militants carried out the November attacks in Mumbai that killed 179 people.

It wants Pakistan to investigate fully the leads in the dossier and help bring those responsible for planning and coordinating the attacks to justice in India. Britain and the United States have joined India in blaming the banned Islamist group Lashkar-e-Taiba for carrying out the attacks.

The Hindu newspaper has published a scanned copy of the dossier on its website (www.hindu.com/nic/dossier.htm).

A more complete dossier of material has also been given to countries who lost nationals in the attacks.

Pakistan says it is examining the material. The question now is how it will respond, and how India will view that response.

PAKISTAN INVESTIGATES FULLY, DISMANTLES LASHKAR'S OPERATION

Pakistan has already said it would not hand over any of its nationals to face trial in India.

But it could mount a full investigation and a credible series of trials in its own country, and make a meaningful effort to close down the operations of Lashkar-e-Taiba and its sister organization Jamaat-ud-Dawa, recently declared a terrorist group by the United Nations.

That might be enough to satisfy India of the good intentions of the civilian government and allow the peace process to revive.

However, elements within the Pakistani military see groups like Lashkar -- set up in the 1980s to fight Indian rule in Kashmir -- as an important weapon against India in the event of future conflict, or to keep up the pressure for a resolution of the Kashmir dispute.

It is unlikely this weapon will be surrendered easily, nor is it obvious Pakistan can fully control groups like this any more.

PAKISTAN MOUNTS A TRIAL BUT LEAVES LASHKAR INTACT

If the evidence is overwhelming and international pressure consistent, Pakistan might be forced to stage a trial of one or two senior Lashkar figures.

But it might allow the organization to continue to function, perhaps under a changed name, and leave what India calls "the infrastructure of terror" more or less intact.

It is also unlikely to take action against current or former members of its military intelligence agency, the ISI -- if indeed any of them were involved in the attack.