Qaeda's Somalia allies on the defensive, for now

By William Maclean - Analysis

LONDON (Reuters) - An al Qaeda rallying cry for an Islamist uprising in Somalia will fall on deaf ears: Its violent brand of militancy repels ordinary people and real hope now exists that the country's new leader can end 18 years of chaos.

Osama bin Laden's appeal on Thursday for Somalis to topple President Sheikh Sharif Ahmed is an attempt to boost spirits among increasingly unpopular al Qaeda-aligned fighters, rather than a realistic political action plan, analysts said.

While bin Laden's local allies pose a real military menace, most Somalis appear to place more faith in the 42-year-old former teacher and his record of building community stability than they do in al Qaeda's message of war, experts say.

"There is no possibility of that revolt happening. This is primarily designed to boost the morale of Shabaab," said Rashid Abdi, a Somali expert at the International Crisis Group.

"The statement shows al Qaeda is ambitious in Somalia, but politically, Sharif Ahmed has the bulk of the country with him."

Al Shabaab is a powerful al Qaeda-aligned group of Islamist fighters who control large swathes of territory and, together with like-minded groups, are waging an insurgency against the fledgling administration and its foreign backers.

But set against this military threat is a profound sense among ordinary Somalis that Ahmed, a moderate Islamist elected at U.N.-hosted talks in Djibouti in January, represents the country's best chance in years of a new future.

Analysts say Ahmed has a real possibility of healing some of the worst rifts in the 10 million population given his Islamist roots and a feeling in the West that he should now be given a chance to try to stabilize the Horn of Africa nation.

Abdi Samatar, a Somalia scholar and professor of geography and global studies at the University of Minnesota, said: "Bin Laden can pontificate all he wants, but that will not change this unfavorable political landscape for al Shabaab."

BIG DANGERS ABOUND

"The will of the people is to say 'No' to war, and that is a major obstacle to bin Laden."

Al Shabaab's main foe until the end of January was an Ethiopian occupation force sent into the country with tacit U.S. approval in 2006 to crush supposed al Qaeda activity.

Ethiopia's presence provided the fighters with a nationalist raison d'etre that many Somalis understood.

But the completion of the Ethiopian pull-out kicked away an important political prop and Shabaab appears to be struggling to remain a cohesive force in its absence, analysts said.

Big dangers do abound for Ahmed, not least the risk of assassination by al Shabaab, which continues to receive funding from foreign sources and guards its secrets well -- not easy in a garrulous society with a highly developed bush telegraph.