Q+A: Will Ban's visit to Myanmar yield results?
BANGKOK (Reuters) - U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has a rare meeting with Myanmar's top general on Friday where he will urge the secretive leader to free all political prisoners and ensure next year's elections are credible.
Questions have been raised about what Ban believes he can achieve and about the timing of his visit, which will start as opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi's widely condemned trial is expected to resume in Yangon.
WHY IS SUU KYI ON TRIAL?
The Nobel laureate is charged with violating the terms of her house arrest last month by allowing an American intruder to stay at her home, which prosecutors say breached a security law designed to protect the state from "subversive elements."
However, critics say the charges are trumped up and the trial is an attempt to keep Suu Kyi out of multi-party elections next year, which are expected to entrench nearly half a century of army rule.
IS THERE A CHANCE SUU KYI WILL BE FREED?
There is very little hope of her release at this stage. Her participation in any political process would be a major threat to the junta's grip on the country.
Analysts say a suspended sentence and a return to house arrest is the best Suu Kyi can hope for. The generals might favor this outcome, hoping it might be seen as lenient, while still keeping Suu Kyi out of the political picture.
But diplomats in New York say it would not be enough to call Ban's visit a success. Suu Kyi has spent 14 of the past 20 years in detention, mostly under house arrest at her lakeside home in Yangon.
WHAT DOES BAN HOPE TO ACHIEVE?
Ban wants the junta to release all political prisoners, Suu Kyi included, and make meaningful democratic reforms.
The junta is usually impervious to international pressure, although Ban may believe he has some sway with the generals, having convinced them to allow aid agencies to operate in Myanmar after the devastating Cyclone Nargis last year.
Analysts say Ban may have been given some indication by the generals, or by U.N. envoy Ibrahim Gambari after his trip last week, that his visit can bring some kind of positive result.
"There must be something worthwhile he can achieve but it won't be enough to satisfy the international community," said Trevor Wilson, a former Australian ambassador to Myanmar.
"He has to be seen to be tough and uncompromising when he meets the generals and they will appear attentive. However, they're a hardline bunch and I'm not optimistic they'll change."
WHY IS BAN VISITING MYANMAR NOW? Continued...
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