Q+A: Will Ban's visit to Myanmar yield results?

BANGKOK (Reuters) - U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has a rare meeting with Myanmar's top general on Friday where he will urge the secretive leader to free all political prisoners and ensure next year's elections are credible.

Questions have been raised about what Ban believes he can achieve and about the timing of his visit, which will start as opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi's widely condemned trial is expected to resume in Yangon.

WHY IS SUU KYI ON TRIAL?

The Nobel laureate is charged with violating the terms of her house arrest last month by allowing an American intruder to stay at her home, which prosecutors say breached a security law designed to protect the state from "subversive elements."

However, critics say the charges are trumped up and the trial is an attempt to keep Suu Kyi out of multi-party elections next year, which are expected to entrench nearly half a century of army rule.

IS THERE A CHANCE SUU KYI WILL BE FREED?

There is very little hope of her release at this stage. Her participation in any political process would be a major threat to the junta's grip on the country.

Analysts say a suspended sentence and a return to house arrest is the best Suu Kyi can hope for. The generals might favor this outcome, hoping it might be seen as lenient, while still keeping Suu Kyi out of the political picture.

But diplomats in New York say it would not be enough to call Ban's visit a success. Suu Kyi has spent 14 of the past 20 years in detention, mostly under house arrest at her lakeside home in Yangon.

WHAT DOES BAN HOPE TO ACHIEVE?

Ban wants the junta to release all political prisoners, Suu Kyi included, and make meaningful democratic reforms.

The junta is usually impervious to international pressure, although Ban may believe he has some sway with the generals, having convinced them to allow aid agencies to operate in Myanmar after the devastating Cyclone Nargis last year.

Analysts say Ban may have been given some indication by the generals, or by U.N. envoy Ibrahim Gambari after his trip last week, that his visit can bring some kind of positive result.

"There must be something worthwhile he can achieve but it won't be enough to satisfy the international community," said Trevor Wilson, a former Australian ambassador to Myanmar.

"He has to be seen to be tough and uncompromising when he meets the generals and they will appear attentive. However, they're a hardline bunch and I'm not optimistic they'll change."

WHY IS BAN VISITING MYANMAR NOW?

The timing of Ban's visit -- just as Suu Kyi's trial resumes -- has baffled analysts who follow Myanmar.

Diplomats in New York have said that the generals offered him the dates of July 3-4 and were probably not willing to negotiate. Ban would have preferred to push his trip back so it did not coincide with the resumption of Suu Kyi's trial but was unable to do so, the diplomats said.

Ban is midway through a five-year term as U.N. chief and the chances of the junta making any concessions are slim. A fruitless visit at such a critical time would do nothing to enhance the reputation of Ban, who has been fighting off accusations of being too soft on the leaders of Sri Lanka, Zimbabwe and Sudan.

"The visit could be auspicious if he sends an unequivocal signal that the U.N. and the international community wants progress," said Amnesty International researcher Benjamin Zawacki, a specialist on Myanmar.

"But if he doesn't do that and he lets the generals set the agenda, he'll have achieved nothing."

Diplomats acknowledge the probability of failure is high. But members of the U.N. Security Council are backing Ban's visit, some of them reluctantly. Given China's reluctance to back U.N. sanctions, a visit of secretary-general is the only card they have to play in Myanmar at the moment.

WHY HAS THE JUNTA INVITED BAN?

U.N. diplomats have said Ban was apprehensive about accepting the invitation because he feared such a visit would be used as propaganda to legitimize the Myanmar regime and Suu Kyi's trial.

Analysts say the normally reclusive regime will portray the visit as a seal of international approval for its much-criticized "road map" to democracy.

"He's walking into a trap and anyone with any rational thinking can see that," said one Southeast Asian academic, who asked not to be named.

"The generals will use the visit to show they are open, legitimate and important enough for the U.N. secretary-general to give them a 'courtesy call'."

(Editing by Valerie Lee)