Mugabe wants vote to strengthen hand

By Cris Chinaka - Analysis

HARARE (Reuters) - Although Zimbabwe's election has been dismissed as a sham by much of the world, President Robert Mugabe may believe it will give him enough legal cover to negotiate from strength with the opposition.

Mugabe is bound to be re-elected after opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai -- who defeated the veteran leader in a first round on March 29 -- withdrew because of violence against his supporters and took refuge in the Dutch embassy.

Mugabe, who thrives in defiance, has brushed off a flood of condemnation, including for the first time from African leaders who previously revered him as a liberation hero.

While analysts believe the tide is clearly turning against the former guerrilla commander and he is moving towards negotiations with the opposition Movement for Democratic Change, he wants to enter talks from a position of strength by extending his 28-year-rule.

After a violent campaign by his supporters since the March defeat, insiders expect a huge voter turnout from rural areas where Mugabe's ZANU-PF has mobilized village heads and traditional chiefs to lead their people to the polls.

ZANU-PF hardliners believe they lost parliamentary and presidential polls in March not because of Mugabe's unpopularity but because they failed to get out the vote for the veteran leader in their strongholds.

Mugabe insists the poll must go ahead to fulfill Zimbabwe's legal process, but he has, for the first time, indicated that ZANU-PF is ready to negotiate with the opposition MDC.

"Mugabe probably sees this as an important step in claiming the presidency, and that once he is sworn in, he will be dealing with the MDC and other opponents from some point of strength," said lawyer Lovemore Madhuku, chairman of political pressure group National Constitutional Assembly (NCA).

"It's a very flawed process, a contestable one because the democratic process leading to his so-called election is in dispute," he said.

"From a practical point of view however, he will be in position and he will be part of the process of finding a solution," Madhuku said.

Negotiations are far from certain. Tsvangirai said on Wednesday that there would be no talks if the run-off goes ahead on Friday.

MISCALCULATION

Whether or not he hangs on, Mugabe is in the weakest position of his long rule with the economy now in freefall and Western countries in particular determined to increase the pain for his inner circle.

Gordon Brown, prime minister of former colonial power Britain, said on Wednesday that London was preparing intensified sanctions against named members of his government.

"Mugabe has seriously miscalculated this time round and what this farce, what they are calling an election, is doing is to dramatize the Zimbabwe crisis," said John Makumbe, a veteran political commentator and Mugabe critic.