Change in Cuba only after Castro dies: U.S. official

By Tom Brown

MIAMI (Reuters) - The United States will have to wait until Cuban leader Fidel Castro dies to see if a better future is in store for his communist-ruled Caribbean island, U.S. Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez said on Saturday.

He also acknowledged that President George W. Bush may leave office without seeing any of the changes his administration has pushed for in Cuba.

"He (Castro) has tilted Cuba toward the failed model that exists today, and we'll have to wait and see if the future is better when he is no longer around," Gutierrez told Reuters in an interview.

His comments appeared to mark a dramatic shift from just a few months ago, when Gutierrez said Cuba was at a "critical juncture" in its history and poised for change.

Gutierrez, a Cuban-American, co-chairs a commission created by Bush to press for a democratic transition in Cuba. He was in Miami, the heartland of Cuban exile opposition to Castro, to address a meeting of Latin American chambers of commerce and industry.

He spoke when asked about a top Cuban official's claim that Castro was now fully on the mend after an intestinal ailment that put his life at risk last year.

Cuban National Assembly President Ricardo Alarcon told CNN on Friday that Castro, 80, who handed over power temporarily to his brother Raul Castro on July 31 after emergency surgery, had put the "worst behind him."

Gutierrez told Reuters "no one really knows" about Castro's health, apart perhaps from those in his inner circle.