War-mongering militants stoke India, Pakistan crisis

By Simon Cameron-Moore - Analysis

ISLAMABAD (Reuters) - The deadly Mumbai attacks aimed to push nuclear-armed India and Pakistan to the brink of war at a time when Islamabad was talking peace and U.S. and Pakistani forces were punishing al Qaeda and its allies, analysts said.

"It happened at a time when a new civilian government in Pakistan was not just reaching out to India, it was undertaking some very meaningful steps," said Samina Ahmed, South Asia project director for the International Crisis Group (ICG).

"For the jihadi groups and their backers in Pakistan this was probably a make or break moment," she said.

What isn't clear is how deep any conspiracy goes in Pakistan.

A crisis with India would play into the hands of sections of the Pakistani military and bureaucracy who are unhappy with a U.S. alliance which has resulted in Pakistani forces fighting their own people in the tribal border areas, analysts say.

Creating trouble with India, according to analysts, would give Pakistan an excuse to get out of the unpopular U.S.-led "war on terrorism," or at least make the United States take notice of Pakistani security concerns about India and Afghanistan.

With alarm bells ringing in Washington, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is spearheading efforts to head off a conflict that would have repercussions far beyond the region.

India has blamed "elements in Pakistan," and has as its prime suspect Lashkar-e-Taiba, a militant group that analysts say was supported by Pakistan's intelligence agency in the past.

Pakistan has asked for evidence, saying India shouldn't discount the possibility that the militants were homegrown.

Moreover, Pakistan is also under siege from al Qaeda and its Islamist militant allies. Attacks on security forces, including the powerful Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency and politicians, have multiplied in the last two years.

President Asif Ali Zardari's wife, two-time minister Benazir Bhutto, was killed a year ago, while a suicide truck bomb destroyed Islamabad's Marriott hotel in September, killing 55.

NEED FOR COOL HEADS

Zardari demonstrated his comparative dovishness by revealing a preference for a nuclear "no first use" pact with India days before the attacks on Mumbai.

Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's government, however, is under pressure to act strongly and faces an election in 2009.

Hawkish elements within the Indian establishment were itching for a more robust response to Pakistan, analysts say, and Singh would have to judge his actions finely.