Mumbai attacks to hit India tourist arrivals

By C.J. Kuncheria

NEW DELHI (Reuters) - Tourist arrivals in India are set to fall by up to 15 percent this season after Islamist militants went on a three-day rampage in Mumbai, tour operators said on Monday.

The expected drop in numbers will squeeze a sector already hit by the global financial crisis, they said, following the attacks that killed 183 people and scarred some of the city's most famous landmarks.

Fire gutted parts of the 105-year-old luxury Taj Mahal hotel, while the city's main train station reopened with blood stains still visible, and a famous tourist hangout was littered with bullet holes even as beer flowed.

Vijay Thakur, president of the Indian Association of Tour Operators, said he expected a 10-15 percent fall in arrivals in the tourist season that runs from October to April, as visitors will be scared away at least for some time.

"This incident is very unfortunate," Thakur said. "Because of the global crisis, there is some decline already."

The global financial crisis had already taken a toll on foreign tourist traffic with arrivals in October up just 1.8 percent from a year earlier compared with double-digit growth in the last five years.

Much of the poor growth was due to rapidly slowing economies in the United States and Britain, whose citizens made up a large portion of the 5 million tourists in India in 2007. Russian tourists were also deciding to stay away.

"After the news about the terrorist attack there was a steep decline in bookings from Russian tourists with many cancellations to Goa," an official of the Association of Russian Tour Operators told Reuters.

Tourism contributes more than 6 percent to India's GDP of $1 trillion, and employs 53 million people directly or indirectly.

In 2007, foreign tourists spent $10.7 billion in India.

Since the Mumbai attacks, the United States, Britain and Canada have cautioned their nationals against visiting India, while Singapore and Australia have asked their nationals to review plans.

In Mumbai, several shows have been canceled, including the LiveEarth concert for climate change in early December, starring Bon Jovi and Roger Waters.

Even though travelers' confidence may recover, Mumbai's former police chief said there were no guarantees against repeat attacks.

"You can make better security arrangements for landmark places, perhaps. But it's not easy in cities with so many people, so many places," Julio Ribeiro said.

Between January and October, 4.3 million foreigners visited India, 9.4 percent more than the same period last year, according to tourism ministry data. (Additional reporting by Charlotte Cooper and Rina Chandran in Mumbai; Editing by Bryson Hull and Katie Nguyen)