UPDATE 3-Mexico economy to shrink in 2009 -cenbank poll

(Adds detail on unemployment data)

By Noel Randewich

MEXICO CITY, Dec 19 (Reuters) - Mexico's economy will likely shrink by 0.1 percent next year, burdened by a deep U.S. recession, according to analysts in a central bank poll released on Friday.

Economists have slashed their growth forecasts for Mexico recently as the slumping U.S. economy dampens demand for imports and factories lay off workers.

Mexico sends about 80 percent of its exports to the United States, which is reeling from a decline in its housing sector and turmoil in financial markets.

Although Mexico's banks were not involved in high-risk loans and toxic securities that have plagued the financial industry in the United States and other countries, the global financial crisis has seeped into Mexico as increased risk aversion reduces demand for the peso currency and pushes up borrowing costs.

Mexican factories cut about 175,000 salaried jobs through November of this year -- about 5 percent of total jobs in the manufacturing sector, according to social security data.

Mexico's jobless rate jumped to 4.47 percent in November, the highest since at least 2000 when the country launched its current system of measuring unemployment, the national statistics agency said on Friday.

Mexico's economy is also suffering from a sharp drop in oil production, which makes up nearly a fifth of exports and provides about a third of government revenue.

In 2010, Mexico's economy will recover and expand by 2.4 percent, according to the poll.

In a similar poll conducted by the central bank in November, analysts predicted the economy would grow by 0.38 percent next year.

Analysts in Friday's poll predicted 2008 headline inflation at 6.35 percent, up from a previous view of 6.27 percent, while next year's inflation was seen at 4.56 percent.

Inflation at a seven-year high has kept Mexico's central bank from cutting interest rates to boost the economy.

The bank expects inflation to peak over the next few weeks and analysts see policy-makers lowering rates early next year.