By Alexei Oreskovic
SAN FRANCISCO May 20 Yahoo Inc Chief
Executive Marissa Mayer's $1.1 billion acquisition of blogging
service Tumblr will be a test of her ability to revive the aging
Web portal. Luckily for her, her performance may be graded
Mayer faces plenty of challenges in her efforts to turn
six-year-old Tumblr into a money-spinner, not least among them
retaining users while devising new types of non-intrusive online
ads outside of Yahoo's traditional area of expertise.
And then there is Tumblr's hefty price tag: a sum that
equates to a fifth of Yahoo's cash.
But some investors and analysts say that Wall Street is more
focused on the rising value of Yahoo's Asian assets, such as its
24-percent slice of China's Alibaba, than on actual business
operations. That means the 37-year-old executive faces less
immediate pressure to prove that Yahoo's biggest acquisition in
years is a profitable one.
"Overall I'm relatively skeptical, but I don't think it
matters much to the stock," Macquarie Research analyst Ben
Schachter said of the deal.
"Say they destroy 100 percent of the value and drive Tumblr
into the ground. It's probably less than a dollar per share in
value," he said.
If Mayer's bet delivers, however, some investors say it
could provide even more upside to a stock already trading at its
highest levels in years.
"The core business is the lottery ticket," said Ryan Jacob,
the chief executive of the Jacob Funds, who owns Yahoo shares.
"Investors' expectations for the core business are very low,
so if they're able to reinvigorate growth, that will move the
needle," said Jacob.
Yahoo's stock finished Monday's regular trading session up 6
cents at $26.58. Its shares have surged roughly 70 percent since
Mayer became CEO in July, largely due to stock buybacks and the
rising value of its Asian investments, which also include Yahoo
Yahoo remains one of the Web's most popular destinations,
but has seen its revenue shrink in recent years as consumers and
advertisers favor rivals Google Inc and Facebook Inc
. By buying Tumblr, Yahoo gets a much-needed platform in
social media to reach a younger generation of users less
enamored of Yahoo's traditional Web content and email.
Yahoo is paying a rich premium for Tumblr, whose nascent
advertising efforts generated a scant $13 million in revenue
last year, according to media reports.
"Tumblr has low revenues and a big multiple, but far-sighted
buyers in technology have shown that they can take small
properties and put them onto their distribution system and do
good things with them," said Adam Seessel, head of Gravity
Capital Management, which owns Yahoo shares.
Take Google's $1.6 billion acquisition of YouTube. That deal
gave the search giant an important video service that boosted
interaction with Google's other online services, he said by way
Facebook's acquisition of photo-sharing service Instagram
for more than $700 million is considered another deft move by
technology observers, allowing the social network to scoop up a
fast-growing threat to its business - even if the ad-free
service hasn't delivered a financial boost to Facebook yet.
For every YouTube and Instagram there is a MySpace, the
once-red-hot social network News Corp acquired for $580
million in 2005 but whose popularity plunged when its new parent
plastered ads all over the service in a rush to monetize.
Mayer stressed Yahoo's commitment to create new so-called
native ads that mesh seamlessly into Tumblr's content and are
considered more suited to the service than the traditional
online display ads that have long been Yahoo's bread-and-butter.
"We have gotten more and more focused on providing native
ads and designing ads for that experience, so that's what we're
going to get really focused on," Mayer, a former Google
executive, told Reuters in an interview late on Monday.
But creating a class of ads that works is no simple feat.
"There isn't a template to do it," said Rebecca Lieb, an
analyst with research and consulting firm Altimeter Group, who
explained that native ads is a catch-all encompassing everything
from advertorials to sponsored tweets that appear in Twitter.
While Yahoo recently began experimenting with news stream
ads on its redesigned home page, doing native ads on a broad
scale could be tricky given the challenge of convincing brands
and agencies to experiment with formats, Lieb said.
Yahoo must also hold onto Tumblr's bloggers, many of whom
were already stomping their feet at being assimilated into the
decidedly "less cool" Yahoo. Many vented their frustrations on
the Tumblr blog entitled "Meltdowns about Yahoo buying Tumblr."
Defections have begun. As reports of the deal spread on
Sunday, the founder of WordPress, a rival blogging platform,
said it "imported" 72,000 Tumblr blogs in a one hour period.
Yet for many investors, those questions are secondary to the
impending IPO of Alibaba Group, which they say is one of the key
factors buoying Yahoo's stock. Analysts and investors estimate
the value of Alibaba to be around $70 billion. But Lawrence
Haverty, a fund manager with GAMCO Investors, believes it could
be worth $100 billion or more when it goes public.
In the event Alibaba's IPO does not live up to expectations,
the fallout for Yahoo will be far more serious than anything
that happens with Tumblr.