By Lisa Baertlein
Feb 5 KFC parent Yum Brands Inc on
Tuesday said time, not ad spending, is the cure for a steep
sales decline at its restaurants in China that was sparked by a
food safety scare late last year.
The fast-food operator makes more than half of its overall
sales in China, and customers there began shunning Yum's
restaurants in December after news reports and government
investigations focused on chemical residue found in a small
portion of its chicken supply.
The company was not fined by food safety authorities.
Yum has built a dominant position in China on the back of
its industry-leading food quality and the current crisis
underscores how vulnerable even the strongest restaurant chains
are to quick shifts in consumer perception.
The company has nearly 5,300 restaurants in China, mostly
KFCs, and quickly responded to the crisis with free beverage and
ice cream promotions - which went nowhere, Chief Executive David
Novak said on a conference call with analysts.
"There's not a whole lot we can do right now that's going to
turn the tide. We need some time," Novak said, adding that Yum
has no plans to increase its already significant advertising
spending in China.
"We could be wasting a lot of money doing marketing right
now," he said.
However, Yum is refining and strengthening its food safety
standards. It also plans to begin an aggressive marketing
campaign after the Feb. 10 Chinese New Year to underscore its
commitment to food safety and restore KFC's brand image.
On Monday, Yum reported a 6 percent drop in fourth-quarter
2012 sales at established restaurants in China and forecast a
surprisingly steep 25 percent drop for the first quarter.
Yum's first quarter in China includes just January and
February, while the fourth quarter includes the last four months
of the year.
Based on the company's experience with prior sales-damaging
crises related to Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS),
avian flu and "Sudan Red" dye, Yum said it does not expect
restaurant sales there to turn higher until the fourth quarter
of this year.
In 2005, Yum pulled some products from its KFC restaurants
in China because they contained "Sudan Red" dye, which was
banned from use in food due to concerns it could lead to an
increased risk of cancer.
At the nadir of that crisis, Yum's China same-store sales
plummeted 40 percent, executives said.
The chicken scare appears to be equally damaging. Last
month, China same-store sales fell 41 percent at KFC and 15
percent at Pizza Hut Casual Dining.
This time around, comments on Weibo - China's equivalent to
the popular U.S. social media site Twitter - appeared to play a
big role in the sales decline.
"One thing we've learned is how quickly word travels in
China," Morningstar analyst R.J. Hottovy said. "This is the
first time we've really seen social media have a profound impact
Yum said it would keep Wall Street abreast of its progress
by reporting monthly sales at its established restaurants in
China until business there recovers, Chief Financial Officer
Patrick Grismer said on the call.
"They're taking this issue very seriously," said Hottovy,
who cited the additional financial disclosures and the company's
sharpened focus on its food quality.
Other analysts were less convinced.
While the enhanced disclosure is appreciated, Yum outlined
no clear "fix" for China restaurant sales and is instead relying
on a "time heals all wounds" mantra, Oppenheimer Equity Research
analyst Brian Bittner said in a client note.
"This is a 'prove it' story," he said.
Yum's shares ended regular trading on Tuesday at $62.08,
down $1.86, or 2.9 percent.