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Breakingviews: Go soft on Greece

Thursday, Nov 01, 2012 - 03:25

Nov. 1 - Sadly, going soft on Greece might be the best option for international creditors, says Reuters global commentary unit Breakingviews.

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Today's topic steroids is breaking these wise softer approach is best for the next Greek debt deal. I China's hard landing at the catastrophe that wasn't. With me now to discuss these stories is where it is breaking music economic Edison at the top us. And it went -- thanks so much to joining us. -- sending it. Really is essentially an gonna get the short term the long term fixed is just gonna get a short term and it right. That's very that they they just announced yet another deterioration of their economic prospects. And that means that their deficit is going to be bigger which means of course your debt -- going to be larger. And the bat great thing to do -- term economic point of view of the future of the countries to write off some of that debt. I'm they're never going to be able to pay it back in any realistic way. But it's not gonna happen it's gonna gets more money and they'll be some negotiating around the edges but effectively the debt will not be written off at least not yet. The big -- is going to hit some 290%. Of GDP sometime next GA. -- any public sector lenders agreeing to have to get some bold. Eventually eventually. Right now it's politically impossible lose this election coming up in Germany and there's no way that the German government is gonna go to its voters and say by the way we forgiven the Greeks. Afterwards. When tempers cool everyone knows everyone in Germany. The political leaders they are quite. Persuaded that something has to give to keep priests in the Europe they're gonna have to forgive some debt and effective benefit either way -- -- forgive some debt. So this is something that's on its way. But it's connected to have to find a window where the political pressure won't be so great so they can opened it and -- some Greek -- out of it. So not a question of if but to -- exactly and -- Greece looking shaky but China data today showing China's economy is re gaining some traction. Does this mean we're not gonna see it is hard landing. There's been a hard landing predicted in China for so many years one hardly knows someone you can look back ten years twenty years and people have been predicting that's hard landing. It may yet come but it doesn't look like this particular moment is the one. And they governments in a little bit stimulus -- -- enough to turn a slight decline into a slight increase. What were interested in is whether the underlying factors that worry people about China are -- -- of the financial excesses that dependence on construction the excessive investment. The answer is no they're still there so this kind of structural weaknesses that could eventually lead to a heartland and are just still present. And uses breaking -- heat and knicks. What is it and what did it tell you are our man in Beijing John fully developed this index to try to you. Get some esoteric indicators -- a collection of almost random signs of how economic life is going in China. Because it's very hard to get very accurate. Global information and right now it like the other indicators is saying that things are getting a little better but not so great that and we should. Relax and say there's nothing wrong with China. Maybe -- happy that he and -- for the UK at some point absolutely. Thank you very much and went through all agenda assessing financial insights want to US breaking the show every -- at twelve per -- -- Sixteenth SE GM CI and seeing all and -- is voices.

Breakingviews: Go soft on Greece

Thursday, Nov 01, 2012 - 03:25

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