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Breakingviews: Finding the next financial fad

Thursday, March 21, 2013 - 03:11

March 21 - As investors seek a reliable way to gauge when interest rates will rise, Breakingviews columnists discuss the indicators that could follow in the footsteps of the Baltic Dry Index and the TED spread and become de rigueur.

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That's coming go even in finance and economics one of the biggest -- a few years ago. Was the Baltic dry index whichever was talking about even though no one at every heard of it months before. On the eight PX the Ted spread they all kind of became hot for awhile. Now we're looking for the next. It girl really an economic tigers this kind of program around why why we need something to grasp onto. And we put it is too is that every everybody is. Terrorists not rising rates right just because we all know that we had to adjust to a very lows. The -- environment and so what I think most market participants are looking for -- anything that will give them any sense of who wins this dynamic is gonna change when rates are actually gonna start going up and keep coming. Number two there are certain ones that we're kind of already or are actually royal hill school loans that you know in the in the days before the Fed's. And those central banks decided to set rates at zero for -- time people he's a look at. Fed Funds futures a year ago futures say this is what the market thinks that overall still on the dashboard you'll still evident already flashing and again right now Arctic is the offensive let's say. And the Fed. Agnes is made a big deal live the unemployment rate in the US and one of the things you've been looking at is. Well sort of early warning of the Fed might be when the employment starts to get nice and healthy and that was a what do what do we have. This is the thing and everybody knows the again -- it's very -- we see every month rent also is a survey called the jolt survey and it it's it's a lagging indicator that something that the Fed is looking at -- gallon by trying to kind of shows hiring and also quickly yes. Quitting and a great rate is kind of interesting because again most people won't quit your job. Of their own volition unless they feel pretty confident about getting another -- and so that rate goes up it looks like that the people are much more optimistic about stats you -- about one of those Mayweather couldn't couldn't record of the puck beetle isn't just the attitude that the Fed is looking at that's been -- -- since the shot looked like it's. More what else it felt a couple of other once again all of these are kind of -- because it is it will that we are talking multiple strength trainer here. I -- cut interest rates -- it going to be an early now collapse could. About that but you know we're looking at the forward heard these are basically you know what the market thinks. -- might be and the future whether it's one year to three years and again at the tenure there are Muslim and exactly on -- -- and we're concerned about again is the longer race because of the Fed stops or papers off its quantitative easing -- the long -- just been targeting which -- -- are going to not supermarkets are kind of looking Arizona swap indexes. Yes it's called the overnight indexed swap as has often been around -- became popular -- you during the crisis in the sense. You know -- are still looking at is is this expect to libel and chemical deliberately because the Bible trusted like no way to -- back into let's find something else -- -- it's been a lot like that conjured out with another mixed but a lot of people. Like this index because they can calorie and ways you can't say that's fine. And so that rate is another one so that when people start thinking what the Fed ultimately gets to raising -- you're there you'll start seeing movement there I think people start talking a lot about -- -- pass -- we will leave it there -- giving you some things to think about there are what got more breaking news tomorrow.

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Breakingviews: Finding the next financial fad

Thursday, March 21, 2013 - 03:11

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