World at Risk: Reform in China? Don’t hold your breath
Friday, April 05, 2013 - 02:25
April 5 - China’s new leaders are chips off the old block, not reformers, but Abenomics just might work for Japan, says Nomura's Alastair Newton in part two of our look at country risk in Q2.
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It's. -- For recruitment for a proper equipment for the -- if. I'm yet to be persuaded that -- I think it's time for. Changing -- and the remaining members of the standing commitment -- -- actually had to work very hard on us support. To get into the positions which they occupy today. That suggests that they will have a certain degree of the -- antithesis. To what one -- Diplomacy vested interest in China. I suspect that what we're gonna see is a group of seven individuals who -- going to continue to be reactive rather the product it. In the face of increasing. Challenges in China. Economic. Demographic social and of course a civil society which is becoming more -- mobile vibrant. The tendency perhaps it's going to be some results nationalism which. Trust like it's as simple terms -- Japan bashing -- -- -- some of the tensions and to move forward slightly with reforms. So there are some issues which went -- The financial system load of this credit around right banking system. We are detecting signs in China's financial sector similar -- -- which preceded the collapse in Japan. And the the US and Europe more recently so we do expect to see some reactions that that it quickly tightening monetary policy in the coming months. And a slowdown in growth in the second half yet. To seven point 3% and Bobby. Options of -- has been very successful it's walking down the yen. Without having very much and credits him for that it is helping him to achieve. Some of its objectives may -- I think the reality of it is this. Credit to operate for trying to make a difference. Off to Japan has been in the doldrums for South -- but this is a harvest -- -- in my view. Particularly since clarified his. -- since operational control. -- -- aspects was the topic of its right. We could be looking at a forty to 50% increase in the cost of imported energy that you over the space of sixty some -- months. That would not a serious dent in should step up its plans.
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