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Breakingviews

Breakingviews: Quit that GDP micro fixation

Wednesday, May 15, 2013 - 03:27

May 15 - Fixation with micro-changes in GDP data obscure the perspective on a possible euro zone recovery, says Breakingviews.

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Today's breaking his -- small number six facing proudly euros and -- -- He had with the national weather and what's hot that's what is breaking views economic at a sat infamous for joining us I -- the queens just stories making news don't focus too much on these small numbers right. That's right and you haven't a number that comes out today we have German GDP up zero point 1% and French GDP down zero point 2% its quarterly change. What does that mean really well. That's one part in 2001. Point 1%. If you took that in your daily diet say. It's one. The did decline of point 1% is. Roughly the equivalent of taking not a quarter Brad not a quarter of a quarter but a quarter of a quarter of a quarter of a quarter of a piece of bread less. That's you wouldn't notice it -- a few crumbs and the bottom of your of your your your plate. That you either -- guarantee. And yet investors sit around as if this is the most important thing in the world and there's been talk about double dip recession -- in France and you know now we're down again. You wouldn't notice it's an imaginary fixation. And of course assume any fact that they could sweep this GDP numbers right I think that -- swept. Construction -- obvious of the German statistical -- office suggested that it that it was indeed whether that seems to have kept this down. It should have been up three -- three or four parts and a thousand in other words a few more crumbs on your on your plate. And you know if you look at the way GDP is calculated all the approximation and destinations and measures inflation that are in there. It's not really meaningful number at all. So if you wanted to look at -- he would just be really. You know you're wasting your time from an economic point of view it's economic Salinas. So -- what speed danger if you like of being to fixate on these GDP number it's okay. Exactly the problem is that if you it's not just silly but it's worse than silly. And that's that's really what's what the point of this pieces is that. Suppose they're actually is something happening in the European economy you know and stagnation for now almost five years. At some point growth is gonna started to pick up again and if one thinks of the main problem has been. Financial squeeze that seems to be. Coming away a bit. He won't show up in GDP are -- sharp for quite some time. Because the investment increase in investment increasing confidence the plans that are construct Marquardt growth that -- real growth. Are gonna be drowned out by these very small random variations. It's an investor who's looking for GDP. Looking just at the GDP growth is concern us is terrible news but actually he's going to be left arm behind. I'm by the time GP GDP actually shows a clear pick up. The economy will -- growing for probably months may be several quarters and they could be bad knee jerk reactions to you right absolutely it's. The GDP is a poor measure and simply want. Great we'll have to leave it and we'll keep looking at those GDP number is my thanks to Ed -- from breaking -- I did forget to watch Friday special needs makeup where -- throw full -- into being the prime minister of Liberia. I'm managing all this is voices.

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Breakingviews: Quit that GDP micro fixation

Wednesday, May 15, 2013 - 03:27

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