Reuters - Video

EDITION: U.S. | U.K. | IN

Investing 201

How to play the Fed’s tapering timeline

Thursday, June 20, 2013 - 02:34

Fears that the Fed will begin cutting back on easy money later this year has unnerved investors. We looked to the past for guidance, and what we found defies conventional wisdom.

▲ Hide Transcript

View Transcript

We -- interest rates would stay this low for ever. And now pitcher Ben Bernanke has set to happen how will get back to higher rates does that mean -- the bull market for stocks. Maybe not we will -- two renowned experts Carnegie Mellon political economist Allan Meltzer who wrote these history on the Federal Reserve. And NYU financial historian Richard seller author of a history of interest rates. Professor Meltzer says investors turned bullish once again convince the Fed will stick to its guns. As chairman Paul Volcker did and stubbornly hiking rates in 1981. Interest rates go up to -- fed tightening. So that's bad for the -- marker but the longer term thing is you know we're going to get rid of the inflation. So that's good for start once they're convinced as the example I gave you -- walker and 81 once they're convinced that he's going into. It's gonna work. They'll be enthusiastic about. Popular wisdom has it that rising interest rates hurt stock prices because fixed income investments look like a more attractive alternative. But bringing associates founded in eleventh cycle since 1963. In which the Fed tighten monetary policy. The S&P 500 gained half -- percent in the first month even though it fell more than half the time. After three months the S&P 500 gained a little more than half a percent over twelve months more than 3%. During that tightening cycle itself stocks rose on average nearly 9%. Stocks fell and only one of those cycles dropping more than 24% between January 1973. And April 1974. What's different this time though is that rates have never been this low professor Seles says the closest parallel is in 1950. You should look at that bit of history because that's superiors wouldn't you know not quickly but just gradually long term government bond interest rates trended up. From two and a half percent where they were at the beginning of the period. Today between four and a quarter and 5% toward the end of the period and while that was happening the stock market had a great -- You know if you bought stocks in 1949 and held them to 1958 you have got something like in real terms something like. 1516%. Annual average return and realtors. Something like the 1980s and nineties given how -- the fifties worked for stocks he says. The worry of jumping into bonds until long term rates get closer to fortify percent.

Press CTRL+C (Windows), CMD+C (Mac), or long-press the URL below on your mobile device to copy the code

How to play the Fed’s tapering timeline

Thursday, June 20, 2013 - 02:34

Top News »

Most Popular »

Retirement »

Money Clip »

How to get out of debt How to get out of debt

Thu, Oct 30, 2014 - (3:37)

Will Apple Pay transform mobile payments? Will Apple Pay transform mobile payments?

Thu, Oct 16, 2014 - (2:45)

3 things to do before disaster strikes 3 things to do before disaster strikes

Wed, Sep 18, 2013 - (1:39)

Your must-do money list Your must-do money list

Wed, Sep 11, 2013 - (1:24)

The worst "best" financial advice The worst "best" financial advice

Wed, Sep 04, 2013 - (1:42)

Forget gold: The case for REITs Forget gold: The case for REITs

Fri, Apr 26, 2013 - (1:19)

3 rules for buying a house now 3 rules for buying a house now

Thu, Apr 18, 2013 - (1:39)

“Stalking” your dream home - Money Clip “Stalking” your dream home - Money Clip

Wed, Mar 27, 2013 - (2:50)

3 hidden tax deductions - Money Clip 3 hidden tax deductions - Money Clip

Thu, Mar 21, 2013 - (1:33)

How to break your prenup - Money Clip How to break your prenup - Money Clip

Thu, Mar 07, 2013 - (1:18)

Watch your wallet on Pinterest - Money Clip Watch your wallet on Pinterest - Money Clip

Thu, Feb 21, 2013 - (1:33)

Get set for the big bull run - Money Clip Get set for the big bull run - Money Clip

Thu, Jan 24, 2013 - (3:41)

Moving Pictures »

Real-life superheroes Real-life superheroes

Tue, Oct 28, 2014 - (1:44)

Dance of the northern lights Dance of the northern lights

Mon, Oct 20, 2014 - (1:08)

Images of September Images of September

Wed, Oct 01, 2014 - (1:00)

Still missing – MH370 Still missing – MH370

Fri, Sep 05, 2014 - (2:05)

Burning Together Burning Together

Mon, Sep 01, 2014 - (2:23)

Mending dolls, teddies and hearts Mending dolls, teddies and hearts

Fri, Aug 22, 2014 - (3:12)

Images of August Images of August

Fri, Aug 29, 2014 - (1:00)

"Old timers" sail the Chesapeake Bay "Old timers" sail the Chesapeake Bay

Mon, Aug 11, 2014 - (2:27)

Burned memories Burned memories

Fri, Aug 08, 2014 - (3:02)

Images of July Images of July

Thu, Jul 31, 2014 - (1:20)

World Cup: passion on the pitch World Cup: passion on the pitch

Fri, Jul 11, 2014 - (1:00)

A refugee in America gives back A refugee in America gives back

Thu, Jul 03, 2014 - (3:25)

A long search for refuge A long search for refuge

Fri, Jun 20, 2014 - (3:04)

World Cup: Around the globe in 50 goals World Cup: Around the globe in 50 goals

Fri, Jun 06, 2014 - (1:08)

VIVID – Sydney’s spectacle of light VIVID – Sydney’s spectacle of light

Fri, May 30, 2014 - (1:37)

The week that changed Boston The week that changed Boston

Mon, Apr 14, 2014 - (3:28)

360° snapshot of life in Kabul 360° snapshot of life in Kabul

Fri, Apr 04, 2014 - (1:26)

A blind teenager, living with vision A blind teenager, living with vision

Thu, Mar 27, 2014 - (3:51)

TIMELAPSE: Backstage at the Oscars TIMELAPSE: Backstage at the Oscars

Wed, Mar 05, 2014 - (2:49)

TIMELAPSE: Lunch with Oscar nominees TIMELAPSE: Lunch with Oscar nominees

Wed, Feb 12, 2014 - (2:55)

Sochi Highlights: Let the games begin Sochi Highlights: Let the games begin

Fri, Feb 07, 2014 - (0:40)

TIMELAPSE: On the Golden Globes red carpet TIMELAPSE: On the Golden Globes red carpet

Tue, Jan 14, 2014 - (3:28)

Pictures of the Year 2013 Pictures of the Year 2013

Fri, Dec 20, 2013 - (3:03)

Marching to the beat of Sousa's drum Marching to the beat of Sousa's drum

Thu, Dec 05, 2013 - (6:11)

The Gettysburg Address The Gettysburg Address

Thu, Nov 28, 2013 - (2:31)

Making Gruyere: A family affair Making Gruyere: A family affair

Wed, Oct 16, 2013 - (5:06)

Abortion: After the decision Abortion: After the decision

Tue, Sep 17, 2013 - (5:46)

Reuters Investigates »

Re-homing victim: "I could have been dead" Re-homing victim: "I could have been dead"

Wed, Feb 19, 2014 - (8:24)

Cops and loggers in the Amazon rainforest Cops and loggers in the Amazon rainforest

Fri, Jan 10, 2014 - (4:01)

"Passed around like a dog" "Passed around like a dog"

Thu, Aug 29, 2013 - (6:32)

Adopted, then abandoned online Adopted, then abandoned online

Thu, Aug 29, 2013 - (13:21)

How the DEA keeps its secrets secret How the DEA keeps its secrets secret

Mon, Aug 05, 2013 - (1:36)

How education lost its role as the great equalizer - Reuters Investigates How education lost its role as the great...

Mon, Dec 17, 2012 - (7:52)

Jihad Jane: From abused child to American jihadist - Reuters Investigates Jihad Jane: From abused child to American...

Sat, Dec 08, 2012 - (10:01)

Jihad Jane: The order to kill - Reuters Investigates Jihad Jane: The order to kill - Reuters...

Sun, Dec 09, 2012 - (10:39)

Lessons of the Jihad Jane case - Reuters Investigates Lessons of the Jihad Jane case - Reuters...

Sun, Dec 09, 2012 - (3:43)

Exclusive: Jihad Jane in her own words Exclusive: Jihad Jane in her own words

Sat, Dec 08, 2012 - (4:11)

Attorney: How a Maryland teenager became radicalized - Reuters Investigates Attorney: How a Maryland teenager became...

Fri, Dec 07, 2012 - (4:21)

Counselor: Jihad Jane at 17 - Reuters Investigates Counselor: Jihad Jane at 17 - Reuters...

Thu, Dec 06, 2012 - (4:17)

Dateline Asia »

Breakingviews: Fleeting QE gains bring emerging market pains Breakingviews: Fleeting QE gains bring...

Wed, Oct 29, 2014 - (2:05)

Regulatory clarity needed on China stock connect -StanChart Regulatory clarity needed on China stock...

Mon, Oct 27, 2014 - (2:56)

Breakingviews: HK-Shanghai disconnect disappoints on reform Breakingviews: HK-Shanghai disconnect...

Sun, Oct 26, 2014 - (2:46)

Asia Week Ahead: Honda air bag crisis to deflate earnings? Asia Week Ahead: Honda air bag crisis to...

Fri, Oct 24, 2014 - (1:52)

FACTBOX: Japan's Abe loses two female ministers in one day FACTBOX: Japan's Abe loses two female...

Mon, Oct 20, 2014 - (1:20)

Breakingviews: Indonesia's Jokowi has a parliament problem Breakingviews: Indonesia's Jokowi has a...

Sun, Oct 19, 2014 - (2:19)

Investment Strategies: Don't worry, buy emerging markets Investment Strategies: Don't worry, buy...

Thu, Oct 16, 2014 - (3:58)

Breakingviews: Worse troubles than Agile brewing in China Breakingviews: Worse troubles than Agile...

Sun, Oct 12, 2014 - (2:35)

NBA's Brooklyn Nets hope to boost global profile in China NBA's Brooklyn Nets hope to boost global...

Fri, Oct 10, 2014 - (4:09)