Reuters Asks: Do political failures put Q4 recovery at risk?
Friday, October 04, 2013 - 02:53
Oct. 4 - A shutdown in the U.S., no government in Germany and a narrowly averted crisis (for now) in Italy - with politicians’ ineptitude rising again, is the recovery at risk in Q4? We ask the experts.
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-- lot of the issues that are of -- here if you look at new entitlement spending and you miss it structure reforms in Japan as well union and Japan is also look at its web. A lot of big decisions have an all being made and and difficult ones do you need for the strong political leadership what it is even hard when you have left. -- without it. It does make some of those big issues have to be -- -- back at some point because the -- summation can't stop entitlement spending rising costs of pension crisis. Sourcing -- actress gets pushed further down the line which he. Eight market timing with some degree -- opera the events that we've seen this weakening -- a pretty easily discounted by the market. -- -- in America it's disappointing more than anything else quite frankly the President Obama. Hasn't managed to US steer these negotiations step. Took completion long before these deadlines or -- with with so many years still in power you hope that this is something he gets tackled. And that's sort sounds. Do think that what we have right now he's he's a real concern that the fact that there isn't some master plot that we don't read that we start to -- little faith in the ability of -- Baghdad. Governments and and of central banks -- have survived domestic and she wants to take that consent he sees hopping game. The country right now which is that there out of that the man present terms of the well. Does go to different issues one news of the financial markets react. -- these political uncertainties and I think that. There is a significant trees. -- a correction in risk assets equities involved in Canada and dissident Christian is but that's all really columns but that's all global recovery. And my answer is probably not. Even if growth is cut by a couple of tenths of percentage points in the US. -- the US would recover next because this is just some -- It's only if this is an increase rice visiting defaulting US actions and utility. That's that might be negative feedback to -- in the financial markets and we get economies will of that. I think really this the most interesting questionable but before releasing it all -- in that respect is in the is in the US because. If the markets are going to extrapolate forward and look at the sort of very messy. Negotiation process have the into the resolution than the debt ceiling. That this could be worries about growth in general in the in the US and in particular in the fourth. In the -- school and that typing my -- started in December as markets are currently looking for. They could actually sort of moved further into that into next year. I'm not could be a bit of a big school fixed income markets. -- in the US in particular but more generally how we could see yields pulling back towards. That lows that we were seeing. Earlier this year.
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