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Breakingviews: U.S. growth mirage

Thursday, December 05, 2013 - 03:46

Dec. 5 - Antony Currie and Breakingviews columnists discuss whether the new third-quarter GDP estimate is as good as it looks – and what it would take to boost the economy longer term.

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So it's time to rejoice not not talking about Christmas we've had better revisions to the third quarter gross domestic product and -- stay with me it does get more interesting. It's coming at three point 6% which is meant to be a great place for debate to show the economy is trying one for that Martin. Down from apple -- the office today you -- think this is anywhere near as good as it looks tell us why. No well one point seven percentage points LV team in case that's warmest on so it just companies building up stock much he's setting anything in well that's right yeah. You know a 115 billion dollars of extreme -- delegate some. Yes that's just full court. Number is going to be policy right. And then even the stuff that isn't that -- any point and stay -- people. Housing up 13% non residential stock -- up whole team that happens but think of housing and a good guessing to folks on the isn't it this that still. As pent up demand economists will tell us that. And at the -- -- -- insulting but you still say the sentinel site below the long term average so this this gives dream for hunt for some people shall. That -- an -- and this pent up supply from only it was supply that we had in 20042007. And of course you've got a look ahead to -- Cole's time in the bailout interest rates in the doubles and what he does not get some mortgages. They. Think president goes that's part of the Fed's idea I think at least implicitly analysts is that with low rates and lots of money -- -- to get labeled it -- -- buy houses. -- housing market goes up eventually you get some kind of wealth. Defect -- people so spending money and it. Does convert into more sustainable. GDP growth prevent it eventually which meant -- this quarter but eventually Hammond is that is that realistic. Well yes I mean what goes up must come down the stock market's up 22 the sentences yet. That's obviously a wealth effect tape. That while obviously places like Nevada where housing -- by 50% to its recovered. Yes that's a genuine well if it keeps genuinely good for Nevada's GT eight. But stocks up 27%. I mean maybe not going going up for that but I suspect that that wealth effect is temporary. One of the problems with him entry as well is that in order for the inventory number to be -- that schools. They have to put all of a 115 billion dollars of him and export. -- business just stops increasing K and just -- -- flat that he front that gives you a huge negative -- next quarter's G. I think that that says it -- a vehicle miceli will probably agree that yet. A very good third quarter isn't gonna mean a very good and -- court official put it probably from -- things of that coming out but that's just cool so we'll also what about next -- what. What are we what are we need going -- the people have been saying. And policies some of these -- -- -- is that look at what's happened in Washington all the that this that the lack of an agreement winning congress as well that's it may shave one half two percentage points of -- legislation -- -- -- -- -- a -- but it's hard to quantify it but it is certainly effective yet. Is -- sent to the budget kind of stumbling from one crisis -- -- -- it's a link -- -- -- tangible is -- we have the big jobs report coming up him up they don't report coming up tomorrow. Friday morning. We've had some good sort of interim ADP is sort of foreshadows that a little bit until jobless claims today for says it says little and it isn't a system has been a -- them. There's more jokes more employment means we'll spending as well but know that -- upgrade and then -- You know yet great enough. For the Fed to be able to sort of confidently say right now that we can take lots of the stimulus of the table. So we sold and what they get it and next month -- so. Okay well -- in -- trying to for that Richard thanks as well apple we've got it will break from -- mark.

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Breakingviews: U.S. growth mirage

Thursday, December 05, 2013 - 03:46