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Economic party may mellow in 2015

Tuesday, December 30, 2014 - 02:05

After a strong finish to 2014, there are signs that while economic growth will continue, it may not be as dramatic in 2015. Bobbi Rebell reports.

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There's a lot to celebrate when the ball drops signaling the start to 2015. GDP at 5 percent. Interest rates remain at historically low levels. Consumer friendly prices at the gas pump, that have helped revive the fortunes of retailers. And an economy that has helped propel the market to record highs in 2014. But Bob Johnson, Director of Economic Analysis at Morningstar says the party may become a little more mellow next year: SOUNDBITE: BOB JOHNSON, DIRECTOR OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS, MORNINGSTAR (ENGLISH) SAYING: "For next year I think the consensus is for 2-1/2 to 3 percent. I think we'll do just a little less than that. I think housing will be a little bit slow to come back. I think by the end of the year maybe higher rates will hold us back just a little bit" Yes- higher rates. All signs from the Fed signal they are coming at some point in 2015. SOUNDBITE: BOB JOHNSON, DIRECTOR OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS, MORNINGSTAR (ENGLISH) SAYING: "It won't be good for markets on the day that it happens. I mean we could be down 5-10 percent in a matter of a week when they actually announce that they are raising rates. But then, people will say well, wait now, why did they raise rates? Oh, the economy is a little stronger. Oh, everything is kind of clicking right and it will kind of bounce back." It also may be time for the troubles beyond US borders to start mattering more: Standard & Poor's David Blitzer: SOUNDBITE: DAVID BLITZER, CHAIRMAN, S&P DOW JONES INDICES (ENGLISH) SAYING: "We keep hearing China is slowing. Japan is mired in another lost decade. Europe is about to drop back into recession. The Russian economy is shriking. All of those are true. But nobody makes the next step to connect the dots. If you look at the S&P 500, about 50% of the revenues of those companies comes from outside the United States. So while our economy is fantastically strong and our currency is quite impressively strong the rest of the world may be facing serious difficulties and that could trickle back into our economy." And the other wildcard: oil prices. After falling dramatically at the end of 2014- a bounceback could crimp consumer spending in the New Year.

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Economic party may mellow in 2015

Tuesday, December 30, 2014 - 02:05