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穆迪经济学家审慎看待美国经济前景 称升息要等年底

Friday, April 15, 2016 - 04:25

美国最近公布的工业生产数据及消费者信心数据均疲弱,穆迪资本市场首席经济学家John Lonski称,美国经济数据不足以支持6月升息,今年如果升息,应该要等到年底。

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New concerns about the US economy after industrial production fell more than expected in March here with mark. Jon on he is chief economist at Moody's capital markets research great to have you. Thank you. How concerned should we be about industrial production. Bright areas on me. Well you should be somewhat concerned I wouldn't be terribly worried. In the first quarter real GDP may grow by between 0% one half of 1% nevertheless. We think economic activity will pick up. As we move through 2016. However when all the set it done by years at real GDP make a man. Under 2% which is a big let down not that long ago the consensus thought. That when he sixteens real GDP would be grown by nearly 3%. Everything is relative when we talk about these economic numbers. Today there was disappointment about this industrial production number we also had a disappointing consumer sentiment. Out of University of Michigan. But then maybe it's not as bad as people say mean there are some some bright spots. Well there are perhaps bright spots here and they're housing should be doing well this peak spring selling season and it's important that housing do well that is. That unit sales of new and existing homes grow. By at least 10% year over here it's important because auto sales may be in the process of peaking. What are the big disappointments we have in the month of march which to drop by this seasonally adjusted annualized pace of you don't auto sales seventeen and a half million in February 16 and a half million in March. And they may knock out return to that previous space at seventeen in act 218 million. So there is a lot to worry about the first quarter so I think he's well. We seen this problem. Or you don't march retail sales I thought before march retail sales came out. That march retail sales would be on the high side because of the early Easter. Didn't happen. March retail sales were weaker than anticipated they now significantly from the previous month. Our retail sales on average have been declining each month. First three months of twenties is sixty that's not a good side because it April were not who could get support. War apparel sales from the Easter holidays happy to be concerned about. Keep an eye on auto sales that was of the supplied a great deal so what do the US economy. We make it less support model sells so home sales better come through at home sales are disappoint this spring a that we could again become. Worried about the outlook for the US economy. Let's talk about the consumer sentiment. Has been declining for four straight up uncertainty about the good old white think though we should be. More concerned than we've been of late we should be complacent. When we look at this decline by consumer sentiment two things come to mind. Salary increases perhaps are lagging expectations and tactically perhaps there is a quiet. It'd increase. In lay offs that the ought not government data has yet to detect. My own personal experience anecdotal evidence is I hear far more people losing jobs that people finding new jobs. Where where at least well the only. He thing of late it might point towards a fed rate hike in June is the improved performance. Of the equity market of the corporate bond market. However the economic data simply are not strong enough. To present a convincing case for a a June rate hike I'm of the opinion that if we do get a rate hike. In 2016. You will not occur until the very end of the year in December. Ten year treasury yield under one point 8% despite an unemployment rate of 5% that's a huge shock and I think that ten year treasury yield. Is pro eight giving us a good idea as to the apprehension. We have in in the financial marketplace. As well as perhaps in the real economy among businesses regarding the economic outlook. Thanks so much on my pleasure. I think if you Moody's capital market three catches John Lonsky happier now this is raiders.

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穆迪经济学家审慎看待美国经济前景 称升息要等年底

Friday, April 15, 2016 - 04:25