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惠誉确认六家中资中型银行的评级,展望稳定
September 12, 2017 / 7:15 AM / 10 days ago

惠誉确认六家中资中型银行的评级,展望稳定

(The following statement was released by the rating agency) HONG KONG/SHANGHAI, September 12 (Fitch) 本文章英文原文最初于2017年9月5日发布于:<a href="https://www.fitchratings.com/site/pr/1028675">Fitch Affirms 6 Chinese Mid-Tier Banks; Outlook Stable 惠誉评级已确认六家中资中型商业银行的长期外币发行人违约评级和生存力评级。发行人违约评级展望均为稳定。完整的评级行动列表参见本文末尾。 这六家银行包括: - 兴业银行股份有限公司 (兴业银行) - 中国民生银行股份有限公司 (民生银行) - 平安银行股份有限公司 (平安银行) - 华夏银行股份有限公司 (华夏银行) - 广发银行股份有限公司(广发银行) - 北京银行股份有限公司(北京银行) 关键评级驱动因素 发行人违约评级、支持评级、支持评级底线 这六家银行的发行人违约评级均基于国家支持,且与银行‘BB+’的支持评级底线一致,反映了惠誉对中央政府(A+/稳定)在受评银行出现危机时将给予特别支持的持续预期。 这一预期是基于多个考虑因素,包括银行的相对规模、在国内的重要性和所有权结构。尽管这些银行皆属于全国性的股份制商业银行(除属于城市商业银行的北京银行之外),但他们 都缺乏中央政府的直接持股,获得政府支持的过往记录也有限。 近几年内,国有战略投资者对部分中型银行的持股比例上升,而这些战略投资者通常与中资保险公司相关联。这些所有权的变化, 长期来看,可能为部分银行带来更大的协同效应和更多交叉销售机会,但不太可能改变这些银行在有需要时获得国家特别支持的可能性。这是因为惠誉预计支持将主要来自中央政府, 且支持水平会保持稳定,除非私人所有权的比例明显上升并导致国家或政策对银行的影响切实降低。 生存力评级 这六家中资中型银行的生存力评级介于‘bb-’至‘b’的区间,反映了不同程度的个体内在实力,而该内在实力会受到银行的风险偏好和风险吸收能力、金融系统信贷增长的水平 和速度及其对资本充足率的影响、透明度和公司治理方面的问题、以及仍需更臻成熟完善的监管和法律体系的影响。 银行业整体的拨备缓冲水平下降,截至2017年6月末,股份制银行的平均拨备覆盖率为179%,监管的最低要求为150%。2017上半年这些银行的资产质量趋稳,但惠誉 认为这是受益于2016下半年的政府刺激,并认为资产质量仍面临压力。也有迹象表明,在今年出台更严格的监管规定后,影子银行活动减少,这六家中型银行中有数家的委外投资 和理财产品风险敞口在2017上半年降低(每年仅公布一次财务业绩的广发银行除外)。有的银行甚至2017上半年的资产总量出现下降。 相较于贷款分类数据,惠誉对中资银行资产质量的分析更侧重于损失吸收能力(包含资本水平、贷款损失准备金覆盖率和盈利能力)。根据截至2016年底的数据,惠誉估计这六家 中型银行目前的损失吸收能力约为信贷总量的2% - 5%(平均水平约为4%),相较于国有银行的平均水平约为8%。这表明,在需要采取某种形式的补救行动将资本部位恢复至可持续的水平之前,这六家中型银行中大多数的资本缓 冲能够承受的恶化程度比国有银行小。 更多资产迁移回表内可能进一步加重对银行资本水平的压力,这是因为净利息收益率大幅降低和持续的资产质量压力而导致内生资本增长大多滞后于信贷增长。惠誉已考虑到银行筹集 资本和减缓贷款快速增长的计划,以将损失吸收能力维持在与同业水平相近的情况。 评级敏感性 发行人违约评级、支持评级、支持评级底线 如果惠誉认为国家支持银行业的能力被金融系统规模的增长削弱,那么银行的发行人违约评级将面临压力。中国政府尚未对国内系统性重要银行的定义提供任何明确的指导 – 此类指导可能会导致惠誉对银行的支持评级、支持评级底线、以至发行人违约评级作出调整。短期内,惠誉预计国家对银行业提供支持的意愿仍维持在较高水平,而对于系统性重要银 行的支持意愿极高。 如果银行业负债结构发生重大变化,而导致银行更加依赖批发和/或境外融资(即当银行业的存贷比超过100%时),这可能会影响国家长期支持整个金融系统的意愿,包括解决日 益增加的问题资产存量,特别是对那些系统重要性较弱的银行来说更是如此。如果国家对这六家中型银行的持股比例减少(不论是直接持股或通过地方政府或国有企业间接持股),且 减少的幅度重大并导致国家对其实际影响显着降低,这有可能对国家支持这些银行的意愿有负面影响。 生存力评级 惠誉认为过度的资产增长 - 特别是在理财产品、委外投资和非贷款类融资等领域 - 可能导致实际的资本情况在资产质量恶化时,比当前评级水平所预期的资本情况来的更加脆弱。2016年,这六家银行的理财产品和委外投资的增长幅度表明银行的风险偏好上升。 2017上半年,部分中型银行对理财产品和委外投资的风险敞口下降,但目前尚无法明确该下降是否显着和可持续。 根据报告显示,资产质量已经趋稳,但惠誉认为这主要是由于2016下半年出台的政府刺激措施。惠誉认为在中期至长期内,资产质量仍将面临压力。如果银行不对其增长进行审慎 管理并同时提高额外的缓冲能力,那么这有可能成为信用及流动性风险的关键来源。 由于融资成本上升,这六家中型银行的利息净利润下降,导致其盈利能力承压。中型银行过去力图通过大幅增长来抵消盈利能力的降低。为限制金融行业风险而更严格的监管意味着这 些中资银行不太可能维持之前的增长率。 如果与同业相比,银行的风险敞口集中程度增加、资产质量恶化开始影响到偿付能力、或存款大幅流出和/或对理财产品的依赖导致资金和流动性的压力进一步加剧,都有可能导致这 些银行的生存力评级下调。虽然银行业在某种程度上都受益于中国政府提供的一般性支持(最主要以注入市场流动性及为面临困难的借款人提供援助的形式体现),但如果理财产品( 经常作为定期存款的替代品)的发行出现大规模的中断,或银行间市场出现危机,都可能会导致银行的生存力评级下调。 如果惠誉认为这些银行的损失吸收能力或其存款融资和流动性状况改善,那么有可能会上调中型银行的生存力评级。同样地,如果贷款或非贷款信贷的增速更加可持续,监管规定更加 严格或风险偏好变得更保守导致表外活动减少(或担忧程度减低,包括关于信用风险的透明度提高),也将有利于中型银行的生存力评级。 完整评级行动列表如下: 兴业银行 -长期外币发行人违约评级确认为‘BB+’级;展望稳定 -支持评级确认为‘3’ -支持评级底线确认为‘BB+’ -生存力评级确认为‘b’ 民生银行 -长期外币发行人违约评级确认为‘BB+’级;展望稳定 -支持评级确认为‘3’ -支持评级底线确认为‘BB+’ -生存力评级确认为‘b+’ 平安银行 -长期外币发行人违约评级确认为‘BB+’级;展望稳定 -支持评级确认为‘3’ -支持评级底线确认为‘BB+’ -生存力评级确认为‘b’ 华夏银行 -长期外币发行人违约评级确认为‘BB+’级;展望稳定 -支持评级确认为‘3’ -支持评级底线确认为‘BB+’ -生存力评级确认为‘b’ 广发银行 -长期外币发行人违约评级确认为‘BB+’级;展望稳定 -支持评级确认为‘3’ -支持评级底线确认为‘BB+’ -生存力评级确认为‘b’ 北京银行 -长期外币发行人违约评级确认为‘BB+’级;展望稳定 -支持评级确认为‘3’ -支持评级底线确认为‘BB+’ -生存力评级确认为‘bb-’ 联系人: 首席分析师 Grace Wu(胡月明) 高级董事 +852 2263 9919 惠誉国际评级有限公司 香港中环德辅道中68号 万宜大厦19楼 第二分析师 Jack Yuan (袁牧)(兴业银行、民生银行、平安银行) 联席董事 +86 21 5097 3038 第二分析师 Jaclyn Wang(王瑾)(华夏银行、广发银行、北京银行) 联席董事 +86 21 5097 3189 评级委员会主席 Tim Roche 高级董事 +61 2 8256 0310 Media Relations: Wai-Lun Wan, Hong Kong, Tel: +852 2263 9935, Email: wailun.wan@fitchratings.com. 详情参见<a href="https://www.fitchratings.com">www.fitchratings.com 注意:本新闻稿为中文译本。如有疑问,请以英文版本为准。 Applicable Criteria Global Bank Rating Criteria (pub. 25 Nov 2016) here Additional Disclosures Solicitation Status here#solicitation Endorsement Policy here ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. 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