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October 11, 2017 / 2:10 AM / 13 days ago


(The following statement was released by the rating agency) TAIPEI/HONG KONG/SINGAPORE, October 10 (Fitch) 本文章英文原文最初于2017年10月8日发布于:<a href="">Fitch: China Making Progress in Shrinking Shadow Banking 惠誉评级表示,继2017年初监管力度加强之后,中国的影子银行业已经缩减,如果该趋势在中期内持续,将有助降低金融体系风险。虽然影子银行活动减少可能造成流动性短缺, 但近期公布的定向降准表明政府将采用政策工具来避免对优先发展行业产生重大影响。 根据中国银监会的数据,截至2017年8月末,银行业同业资产同比减少13.8%,同业负债下降1.6%。这是自2010年以来,同业资产和负债首次同时减少。当中以同业 业务最激进的股份制商业银行的下降幅度为最大。2017年8月末,其同业资产较年初下降45%。同期委托贷款自2008年以来首次下降。与此同时,理财产品的增长放缓,2 017年1月至8月期间,同业理财产品余额下降2.2万亿。惠誉估计,2017年初至今,已发行的理财产品余额下降了约10%。 影子银行仍然是金融稳定所面临的一大重要风险来源,因多年的快速增长加深了金融市场的相连性,导致部分银行较容易受到资金和流动性的影响。例如,已发行的理财产品余额约达 2016年GDP的40%,从2013年起平均每年增长逾40%。 银监会于9月下旬重申要解决此类风险,强调了其在识别和化解危机方面的角色。监管态度强硬,声明监管机构如果未能及时发现和解决风险,将被视为失职。 因此,在政府对经济增长保持乐观的情况下,影子银行可能继续面临更大力度的监管审查。惠誉预计经济增长在2017年第三季度开始逐步放慢,2018年GDP增长预期为6. 3%,低于2017年的6.7%。 影子银行活动增长放缓而引发的流动性短缺可能对增长预期带来风险,但中国人民银行已经强调将会继续采用多种货币政策工具维持流动性稳定,并保持“审慎和中立”的政策立场。 9月29日,中国人民银行宣布将对达到向农村和小微企业发放贷款标准的银行实施定向降准,就是预防流动性紧缩对实体经济造成负面影响的针对性支持的一个实例。 上述定向降准可能促进银行支持普惠金融——即政府改革议程其中之一重要部分。如果银行发放给普惠金融的贷款超过其前一年贷款余额或贷款增量的1.5%,则其存款准备金率下 调50个基点。大部分银行能够达到这1.5%的标准。但若要存款准备金率下调150个基点,则需要符合发放给普惠金融的贷款占比或贷款增量达到10%的标准。此番调整将在 2018年1月1日生效,但随着银行调整自身定位以符合存款准备金率下调标准,对农村和小微企业贷款的影响可能更快显现。这将缓解特定行业的借款成本压力,并同时保持对银 行业风险的控制。 联系人: Katie Chen(陈冠如) 董事 金融机构评级 +886 2 8175 7614 澳洲商惠誉有限公司台湾分公司 台北敦化北路205号13层1306室 Grace Wu(胡月明) 高级董事 金融机构评级 +852 2263 9919 Dan Martin 高级分析师 惠誉快讯 +65 6796 7232 Media Relations: Leslie Tan, Singapore, Tel: +65 67 96 7234, Email:; Wai-Lun Wan, Hong Kong, Tel: +852 2263 9935, Email: 详情参见<a href=""> 注意:本新闻稿为中文译本。如有疑问,请以英文版本为准。 ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. 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