August 24, 2017 / 9:40 AM / 2 months ago

惠譽:中國債轉股計劃對槓桿率的影響有限

(The following statement was released by the rating agency) TAIPEI/SINGAPORE, August 24 (Fitch) 本文章英文原文最初於2017年8月17日發布于:<a href="https://www.fitchratings.com/site/pr/1027938 ">Fitch: China Debt-Equity Swaps to Have Limited Leverage Impact 惠譽評級表示,中國的債轉股計劃可能無法達到能夠有效解決企業部門槓桿問題的規模,因為投資者意願不熱絡以及銀行受到資本限制。債轉股交易結構仍然會令銀行受到高槓桿企業 的風險影響,銀行資產負債表的透明度也可能被削弱。目前積極參與債轉股的國有銀行規模都較大、財務狀況也相對強健,但大規模的參與債轉股仍可能對其整體風險造成影響。 在理論上,債轉股有助於降低企業部門負債,而不會對經濟增長產生重大負面影響,截至2016年第四季度末,企業部門負債約為GDP的166%。但是,惠譽認為,由於銀行業 之外的投資者投資意願不熱絡,導致債轉股計劃受到抑制。目前簽約的債轉股協議總額約為1萬億人民幣,但大部分交易尚未實際落地。例如,中國建設銀行(建行)落地實施的債轉 股項目規模僅占其已簽約總額的10%,而建行簽約的規模約占債轉股總量的一半。 上星期針對債轉股實施機構發布的管理辦法(試行)似乎是對疲弱的投資意願做出回應。新規允許商業銀行新設的債轉股實施機構發行債券或在銀行間債券市場籌集資金來支持債轉股 交易。如果債轉股實施機構開始大量以此種方式為債轉股項目提供資金,那麼銀行的資本限制將成為債轉股計劃規模的主要限制因素。 新規沒有明確規定債轉股實施機構的最低資本要求,但大部分實施機構都將是銀行的子公司,而主出資人商業銀行必須將實施機構納入並表管理。因此,債轉股子公司發行的債務,以 及子公司持有對債轉股公司的風險敞口,都將影響母行的資本水平。儘管如此,子公司可能會利用複雜的交易結構將風險敞口移至表外,以規避風險權重的計算,而這將會增加銀行系 統的風險。 已實施的債轉股交易只能暫時減少企業的表面債務。銀行通常要求企業在三到五年內回購股權並加計利息,如果後者不能達到特定的績效目標,這樣的股權投資在本質上實為“債務” 。 債轉股難以有效解決高負債企業的結構性問題,尤其如果交易沒有伴隨企業商業模式和經營的根本性改革。此外,由於缺乏對“僵尸”企業的披露和清晰定義,監管是否能有效地將不 合格企業排除在參與名單之外仍然難以評估。這可能給不合格企業留下空間利用債轉股拖延破產和支持不盈利的運營。 最新的債轉股規定仍然禁止僵尸企業參與,但新規明確表示高負債居於產能過剩行業(例如:煤炭和鋼鐵)前列的關鍵性企業可以進行債轉股。實際上,這些行業已經是債轉股交易中 最活躍的參與者,已簽約的交易中有超過半數涉及煤炭和鋼鐵企業,該比例可能會因新規而進一步上升。 聯繫人: Katie Chen(陳冠如) 董事 金融機構評級 +886 2 8175 7614 澳洲商惠譽有限公司台灣分公司 台北敦化北路205號13層1306室 Jenny Huang(黃筱婷) 董事 企業評級 +86 5097 3101 Dan Martin 高級董事 惠譽快訊 +65 6796 7232 Media Relations: Wai-Lun Wan, Hong Kong, Tel: +852 2263 9935, Email: wailun.wan@fitchratings.com. 詳情參見<a href="https://www.fitchratings.com">www.fitchratings.com 注意:本新聞稿為中文譯本。如有疑問,請以英文版本為準。 ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. 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