June 28, 2018 / 1:44 PM / a year ago

WEEKAHEAD-AFRICA-FX-Kenyan and Ugandan currencies expected to be stable

NAIROBI, June 28 (Reuters) - The Kenyan shilling and Ugandan shilling are expected to remain stable in the coming week, while the Ghana cedi is expected to recover.


The Kenyan shilling is expected to remain steady against the dollar in the coming week supported by tight liquidity in the money market and inflows from portfolio investors buying government debt and stocks, traders said.

Commercial banks quoted the shilling at 101.00/20 per dollar, compared with 100.80/101.00 at last Thursday’s close.

“We’re having record levels of dollars coming in from private equities and diaspora remittances... We’ve seen increased interest in our stock market and government papers,” said a senior trader from a commercial bank.


The Tanzanian shilling is seen steady in the days ahead, helped by subdued demand for U.S. dollars from importers.

Commercial banks quoted the shilling at 2,270/2,280 to the dollar on Thursday, compared with 2,275/2,280 a week ago.

“The shilling will likely trade at the same levels for at least another week. Some clients are holding back on demand for dollars due to month-end payment obligations in local currency,” said a trader at Commercial Bank of Africa Tanzania.


Ghana’s vulnerable cedi is expected to show signs of recovery next week on increased central bank dollar sales after hitting all-time lows this week, analysts said.

The local unit has weakened since April, touching 4.83 to the dollar on Tuesday as the U.S. currency strengthened and investors shied away from emerging market assets. It was trading at 4.77 on Thursday, compared with 4.75 a week ago.

“In the week ahead we expect the central bank to bolster its supportive role on the market. This should provide some backing for the local currency and curb its recent depreciation,” said analyst Joseph Biggles Amponsah.


The Ugandan shilling is expected to trade in a stable range over the next week helped by the central bank’s aggressive sell-off of hard currency and anticipated month-end inflows.

Commercial banks quoted the shilling at 3,880/3,890, stronger than last Thursday’s close of 3,887/3,897.

“We anticipate since it’s end of month...some inflows might come in,” said Faisal Bukenya, head of treasury at Exim Bank. Typical end of month flows come from charities and exporters of commodities such as coffee.

The central Bank of Uganda sold dollars in the foreign exchanges market on Wednesday, the third time in June and Bukenya said the inflows were likely to help soak up excess demand in the market.

The shilling, he said, would likely oscillate between 3,875-3,900 over the next week.


The kwacha is expected to remain steady in the coming week supported by hard currency conversions by companies preparing to pay taxes due on July 11.

At 1015 GMT on Thursday, commercial banks quoted the currency of Africa’s No.2 copper producer at 9.9400 per dollar, marginally stronger than a close of 10.0800 a week ago.

“As the deadline for payment of Provisional Taxes looms we are likely to see an increase in supply, bolstering the currency,” one senior commercial bank trader said. (Reporting by John Ndiso, Fumbuka Ng’wanakilala, Kwasi Kpodo, Elias Biryabarema, Chris Mfula; Compiled by Omar Mohammed; Editing by David Stamp)

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