February 25, 2016 / 9:31 AM / 4 years ago

Australia's LNG industry: $54 billion Chevron-led Gorgon project to ship first cargo

(Updates to reflect delays to Gorgon, Wheatstone, Ichthys)
    Feb 25 (Reuters) - Australia has more than $180 billion of liquefied natural gas export projects
coming online, with developers planning to add about 53 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of LNG
production by 2017, an increase that would make the country the world's top LNG exporter.
    Chevron Corp and its partners including Exxon Mobil Corp and Royal Dutch Shell
 are due to ship will ship the first LNG cargo from the $54 billion Gorgon project in the
days or coming weeks. 
    Here is a list of Australia's other LNG projects expected to start up through 2020.
   
 PROJECTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION                                         
 PROJECT            STAGE         DEVELOPER      CAPACITY   START      COMMENTS/LINKS          
                                                 (mtpa)                
 ---------------    ------------  ------------   --------   --------   ----------------------------
 Gorgon 1, 2 & 3    Construction  Chevron        15.6       Early-201  $54 bln; Cost at FID- $37
                                                            6          bln; Stakeholders: Chevron:
                                                                       47.3 pct, Exxon: 25 pct,
                                                                       Shell: 25 pct, Osaka Gas:
                                                                       1.25 pct, Tokyo Gas: 1 pct,
                                                                       Chubu Electric: 0.417 pct.
                                                                       Second cost increase
                                                                       announced in late 2013
                                                                                   
 Queensland Curtis  FID in Oct    BG Group       8.5        Jan 2015   $20.4 bln; cost at FID - $15
 Island 1 & 2       2010          (QGC)                                bln; Stakeholders: BG: 93.75
                                                                       pct, CNOOC: 5 pct, Tokyo Gas:
                                                                       1.25 pct. Maiden cargo
                                                                       shipped Jan 2015.
 Gladstone LNG 1 &  FID in Jan    Santos/Petron  7.8        Oct 2015   $18.5 bln; Cost at FID- $16
 2*                 2011          as/Total/KOGA                        bln; Stakeholders: Santos: 30
                                  S                                    pct, Petronas: 27.5 pct,
                                                                       Total: 27.5 pct, KOGAS: 15
                                                                       pct. Train 1 started
                                                                       exporting on Oct 15, 2015.
                                                                                    Train 2 expected
                                                                       to be ready for start-up by
                                                                       end 2015.
 Australia Pacific  FID in July   Conoco/Origin  9          2015       $2 bln/7 pct blowout to
 LNG 1 & 2*         2011 for                                           A$24.7 billion ($25.42
                    train 1, FID                                       billion) in Feb. 2013, cost
                    July 2012                                          at FID $20 billion.
                    for train 2                                        Stakeholders: Conoco: 37.5
                                                                       pct, Origin: 37.5 pct,
                                                                       Sinopec: 25 pct.  
 Ichthys 1 & 2      FID in Jan    Inpex/Total    8.4        July-Sept  $34 bln - a 70 pct increase
                    2012                                    2017       from original pre-FID
                                                                       estimate of $20 bln. 
                                                                       Stakeholders: Inpex: 72.805
                                                                       pct, Total: 24 pct, Tokyo
                                                                       Gas: 1.575 pct, Osaka Gas: 
                                                                       1.2 pct, Toho Gas: 0.42 pct
 Prelude FLNG       FID in May    Shell/KOGAS    3.6        By 2017    Estimated at $10.8-$12.6 bln,
                    2011                                               expected to be first floating
                                                                       LNG project globally.  
                                                                       Shell: 67.5 pct; Inpex: 17.5
                                                                       pct; KOGAS: 10 pct; CPC: 5
                                                                       pct. 
 Wheatstone 1 & 2   FID in Sept   Chevron        8.9        Mid-2017   $29 bln; FID in Sept 2011;
                    2011                                               Stakeholders: Chevron: 64.14
                                                                       pct, KUFPEC: 13.4 pct,
                                                                       Woodside: 13 pct, TEPCO: 8
                                                                       pct, Kyushu Electric: 1.46
                                                                       pct. 
                                                                       
  ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    TOTAL CAPACITY UNDER CONSTRUCTION: 53.3 MTPA
    ESTIMATED CAPEX OF PROJECTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION: $172.62 BLN 
  ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    
    NEW PROJECTS THAT MAY BE FINALISED IN 2013 AND BEYOND
 PROJECT           STAGE         DEVELOPER       CAPACITY   START    COMMENTS/LINKS          
                                                 (mtpa)              
 ---------------   ------------  --------------  ---------  -------  --------------------------
 Arrow LNG 1 & 2*  FID unclear   Shell/PetroChi  8.0        est.     Shell CEO said in January
                                 na                         2017     2015 that Arrow LNG was
                                                                     "off the table" due to
                                                                     cost-cutting. Partners may
                                                                     sell gas to competitors
                                                                     rather than develop their
                                                                     own LNG plant.
 Bonaparte         Considering   GDF             2.4        est.     Scrapped FLNG plan in June
                   alternatives  Suez/Santos                2019     2014, considering
                   ; no FID                                          alternatives             
                   timeframe                                         
 Browse FLNG       FID for FLNG  Woodside        Est. 12    NA       Woodside plans three
                   redesign in                                       floating LNG vessels for
                   2016                                              Browse.             
 Scarborough FLNG  2014-2015     Exxon/BHP       6-7        2020-    
                                                            2021     
 Sunrise LNG       FID           Woodside        3.5        Post     E. Timor and Australia
                   estimate:                                2020     currently in arbitration
                   Post 2016                                         over Sunrise gas field
                                                                     revenue sharing agreement,
                                                                     project likely
                                                                     indefinitely delayed.
                                                                                 
                                                                     Timeline of
                                                                     dispute:             
 ---------------   ------------  ------------    ---------           
 TOTAL CAPACITY                                  31.5                
 ---------------   ------------  ------------    ---------           
 
        POSSIBLE EXPANSIONS OF EXISTING PROJECTS
 PROJECT           STAGE         DEVELOPER       CAPACITY   START    COMMENTS/LINKS          
                                                 (mtpa)              
 ---------------   ------------  --------------  ---------  -------  --------------------------
 Gorgon 4          FEED in       Chevron         Approx.    Est.     Plans for trains 4, 5  
                   2012; FID in                  5.0        2018     
                   2013                                              
 Gorgon 5          Speculative   Chevron         5.0        N/A      
 Pluto 2           FEED^^        Woodside        4.3        2015     Expansion off table for
                   completed;                                        the near term while talks
                                                                     continue for third party
                                                                     gas. Space available at
                                                                     Pluto site for 5 trains. 
                          FID                                        
                   delayed from                                      
                   anticipated                                       
                   late 2012                                         
 Pluto 3           FEED          Woodside        4.3        N/A      
                   completed                                         
 Pluto 4 & 5       Speculative   Woodside        est. 8.6   N/A      Current site, with 1
                                                                     train, can accommodate 5
                                                                     trains.
 Wheatstone        Speculative   Chevron         16.1       N/A      Chevron plans for the
                                                                     Wheatstone project to
                                                                     eventually expand into the
                                                                     plant to a 25 mtpa hub.  
 Darwin 2          Speculative   ConocoPhillips  est. 3.5   N/A      Conoco has suggested it
                                                                     may expand the existing
                                                                     plant with gas from
                                                                     Australia's Browse Basin.
                                                                     Santos and GDf Suez
                                                                     considering putting their
                                                                     Bonaparte gas into Darwin.
                                                                                     
 Arrow LNG 3 & 4*  Speculative   Shell/PetroChi  est. 10.0  N/A      With Arrow LNG 1 & 2
                                 na                                  trains uncertain according
                                                                     to some analysts, trains
                                                                     3&4 are unlikely. 
 Queensland        Speculative   BG              est. 3.5   N/A      Difficulties securing gas
 Curtis Island                                                       reserves are likely to
 LNG 3*                                                              deter QCLNG from
                                                                     expanding, according to
                                                                     experts. 
 Australia         Speculative   Origin/Conoco   est. 9.0   N/A      Gas reserve shortages of
 Pacific LNG 3 &                                                     other projects may spur
 4*                                                                  Origin and Conoco to sell
                                                                     the gas for trains 3&4 to
                                                                     their rivals, according to
                                                                     some industry analysts. 
 ---------------   ------------  ------------    ---------           
 TOTAL CAPACITY                                  est. 65.8           
 ---------------   ------------  ------------    ---------           
    
     PROJECTS CURRENTLY ONSTREAM 
 PROJECT          STAGE         DEVELOPER     CAPACITY   START     COMMENTS/LINKS          
                                              (mtpa)               
 ---------------  ------------  ------------  ---------  --------  --------------------------
 North West       On stream     Woodside      16.5       1989      
 Shelf Venture                                                     
 (Trains 1-5)                                                      
 Darwin (Bayu     On stream     Conoco        3.6        2006      Exploration for expansion
 Undan)                         Phillips                           under way, gas resource to
                                                                   run out in 2025. 
 Pluto Train 1    Start         Woodside      4.3        2012      A$14.9 bln, one year delay
                  delayed one                                      in start. Stakeholders:
                  year; online                                     Woodside: 90 pct. Tokyo
                  April 2012                                       Gas: 5 pct, Kansai: 5 pct
 Queensland       On stream     BG Group      4          2014      QCLNG 2 due up in Q3 2015;
 Curtis Island 1                (QGC)                              at plateau, expected in
                                                                   2016, total output seen at
                                                                   around 8 mtpa.
                                                                   Stakeholders: BG 93.75
                                                                   pct, CNOOC: 5 pct, tokiyo
                                                                   Gas: 1.25 pct.
 --------------   ------------  ------------  ---------            
 TOTAL CAPACITY                               28.4                 
 ---------------  ------------  ------------  ---------            
                                                                   
                                                                   
 
    * Coal seam gas to LNG projects   
    ^^ = Front-end engineering and design           
    Source: Company announcements, documents and websites, Queensland government websites, industry
sources, Macquarie Research, Tri-Zen Capital, analyst reports and estimates. Where dates for FIDs
and start-up dates were not available from the project developers, analyst and industry source
estimates were used. Projects of 1 mtpa or below have been excluded.

 (Compiled by Rebekah Kebede, Sonali Paul and Henning Gloystein; Editing by Michael Perry)
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