June 11, 2020 / 8:59 AM / a month ago

TABLE-China expects corn prices to fall on higher supplies

    BEIJING, June 11 (Reuters) - China expects corn prices to fall in the second half of the year as supplies
increase due to higher imports and sales from state reserves, according to an agriculture ministry report on
Thursday.
    The ministry also lowered its forecast for 2019/20 corn industrial consumption to 82 million tonnes, down
500,000 tonnes from the previous month's estimate, as the operation rate of corn processing companies is expected to
fall on rising prices of the grain. 
    Consumption, production, and imports of corn and soybeans in the 2020/21 year remain unchanged, according to the
monthly Chinese Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (CASDE). 
    Key numbers from the CASDE are below: 
                            2018/2019         2019/2020 June      2019/2020 May       2020/2021 June     Percentage
                                             Forecast(2019.6)    Forecast(2020.5)    Forecast(2020.6)      change
   Corn - crop year                                                                                           
       Oct-Sept                                                                                         
 Planted acreage (mln         42.13               41.28               41.69               41.69            0.00%
       hectares)                                                                                        
  Output (mln tonnes)         257.17             260.77              266.51              266.51            0.00%
 Imports (mln tonnes)          4.48               4.00                5.00                5.00             0.00%
   Consumption (mln           274.78             278.30              285.47              285.47            0.00%
        tonnes)                                                                                         
 Exports (mln tonnes)          0.02               0.05                0.02                0.02             0.00%
 Balance (mln tonnes)         -13.15             -13.58              -13.98              -13.98            0.00%
  Soybean - crop year                                                                                         
       Oct-Sept                                                                                         
 Planted acreage (mln          8.40               9.35                9.60                9.60             0.00%
       hectares)                                                                                        
  Output (mln tonnes)         16.00               18.10               18.82               18.82            0.00%
 Imports (mln tonnes)         82.61               91.00               93.60               93.60            0.00%
   Consumption (mln           102.93             107.10              111.12              111.12            0.00%
        tonnes)                                                                                         
 Exports (mln tonnes)          0.12               0.15                0.15                0.15             0.00%
 Balance (mln tonnes)         -4.44               1.85                1.15                1.15             0.00%
  Cotton - crop year                                                                                          
       Sept-Aug                                                                                         
 Beginning stocks (mln         7.43               7.21                7.73                7.73             0.00%
        tonnes)                                                                                         
 Planted acreage (mln          3.37               3.30                3.21                3.21             0.00%
       hectares)                                                                                        
  Output (mln tonnes)          6.04               5.80                5.68                5.68             0.00%
 Imports (mln tonnes)          2.03               2.00                2.00                2.00             0.00%
   Consumption (mln            8.24               7.23                7.80                7.80             0.00%
        tonnes)                                                                                         
 Exports (mln tonnes)          0.05                0.05               0.05                 0.05            0.00%
  Ending Stocks (mln           7.21               7.73                7.57                7.57             0.00%
        tonnes)                                                                                         
   Sugar - crop year                                                                                          
       Oct-Sept                                                                                         
 Planted acreage (mln          1.44               1.42                1.45                1.45             0.00%
       hectares)                                                                                        
         Cane                  1.21               1.19                1.19                1.19             0.00%
         Beet                  0.24               0.23                0.26                0.26             0.00%
  Output (mln tonnes)         10.76               10.41               10.50               10.50            0.00%
      Cane sugar               9.44               9.02                8.96                8.96             0.00%
      Beet sugar               1.32               1.39                1.54                1.54             0.00%
 Imports (mln tonnes)          3.24               3.04                3.50                3.50             0.00%
   Consumption (mln           15.20               14.80               15.20               15.20            0.00%
        tonnes)                                                                                         
 Exports (mln tonnes)          0.19                0.18                0.18                0.18            0.00%
 Balance (mln tonnes)         -1.40               -1.53               -1.38               -1.38            0.00%
  Edible oils - crop                                                                                          
     year Oct-Sept                                                                                      
  Output (mln tonnes)         25.49               26.43               27.70               27.70            0.00%
      Soybean oil             14.31               15.80               16.34               16.34            0.00%
       Rapeseed                5.69               5.07                5.66                5.66             0.00%
      Peanut oil               3.18               3.21                3.31                3.31             0.00%
 Imports (mln tonnes)          8.55               8.35                7.70                7.70             0.00%
       Palm oil                4.95               4.50                4.20                4.20             0.00%
       Rapeseed                1.51               1.50                1.40                1.40             0.00%
      Soybean oil              0.78               0.75                0.70                0.70             0.00%
   Consumption (mln           33.38               32.56               33.82               33.82            0.00%
        tonnes)                                                                                         
 Exports (mln tonnes)          0.27                0.27                0.27                0.27            0.00%
 Balance (mln tonnes)          0.40                1.96                1.32                1.32            0.00%
                                                                                                              
 CASDE includes beginning and ending stocks for cotton, which Reuters assumes to include the cotton held by state
 reserves. Therefore, ending stocks cited in this table are the beginning stocks plus the latest year’s crop and
 imports, minus consumption and exports. For all other products, CASDE only includes the balance at the end of the
 crop year. This appears to be the result of the crop output plus imports minus consumption and exports.
 
 
    

 (Reporting by Hallie Gu, Beijing Newsroom and Tom Daly; Editing by Aditya Soni)
  
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