March 8, 2019 / 6:50 AM / a month ago

UPDATE 2-China forecasts rising soybean imports to make up for less canola

 (Adds table)
    BEIJING, March 8 (Reuters) - China on Friday raised its
forecast for soybean imports during the 2018/19 crop year to 85
million tonnes, up from 83.65 million in last month's outlook,
after the country's customs agency suspended some imports of
rival oilseed canola.
    China's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said in
its monthly forecast on Friday that even though African swine
fever was reducing demand for soymeal in pig feed, canola
imports were expected to fall, which would benefit soymeal
consumption.
    Canola imports are likely to drop after the General
Administration of Customs suspended the clearance of canola
imports from Canadian agribusiness Richardson International on
March 1. 
    It said on Thursday it will also step up inspections of all
Canadian canola cargoes until further notice.
    Like soybeans, canola, or rapeseed, is crushed into oil and
meal, with the meal used to feed China's huge herd of livestock
as well as farmed fish.
    The agriculture ministry did not give a forecast for canola
imports. However, China's canola oil production would be 5.7
million tonnes, slightly lower than earlier forecast, as a
result of increased customs inspections reducing canola supplies
available for crushing, the ministry said.
    Canola oil imports are forecast to fall slightly to 900,000
tonnes, versus 1 million tonnes forecast last month, the
ministry said.
    Corn consumption is forecast to fall to 283 million tonnes,
down from 285 million tonnes in last month's outlook, the
ministry said, as African swine fever continued to spread and
forced farmers to slaughter their livestock, reducing demand for
corn-based feed.
    China has reported 111 outbreaks of African swine fever, a
fatal pig disease, in 28 of its provinces and regions since
August 2018.
    The ministry added however that the disease is "generally
controllable" and prevention and control is "gradually
improving".
    
    
            2016/2  2017/2018  2018/201  2018/201   Percentage
             017      (Mar     9 (Feb.   9 (Mar.      change
                    estimate)  forecast  forecast  
                                  )         )      
   Corn                                                  
  Planted   44.18     42.40     42.13     42.13         0%
  acreage                                          
   (mln                                            
 hectares)                                         
  Output    263.61   259.07     257.33    257.33      0.00%
   (mln                                            
  tonnes)                                          
  Imports    2.46     3.47       1.50      1.50       0.00%
   (mln                                            
  tonnes)                                          
  Ending     7.18     -7.73     -26.50    -24.50         
  Stocks                                           
   (mln                                            
  tonnes)                                          
  Soybean                                                
  Planted    7.60     8.25       8.40      8.40       0.00%
  acreage                                          
   (mln                                            
 hectares)                                         
  Output    13.60     15.28     16.00     16.00       0.00%
   (mln                                            
  tonnes)                                          
  Imports   93.49     94.13     83.65     85.00       1.61%
   (mln                                            
  tonnes)                                          
  Ending    -1.15     2.22      -3.40     -2.05          
  Stocks                                           
   (mln                                            
  tonnes)                                          
  Cotton                                                 
  Planted    3.10     3.35       3.37      3.37       0.00%
  acreage                                          
   (mln                                            
 hectares)                                         
  Output     4.82     5.89       6.04      6.04       0.00%
   (mln                                            
  tonnes)                                          
  Imports    1.11     1.32       1.60      2.00       25.00%
   (mln                                            
  tonnes)                                          
  Ending     8.75     7.43       6.58      6.98          
  Stocks                                           
   (mln                                            
  tonnes)                                          
   Sugar                                                 
  Planted    1.40     1.38       1.48      1.48       0.00%
  acreage                                          
   (mln                                            
 hectares)                                         
   Cane      1.23     1.20       1.24      1.24       0.00%
   Beet      0.17     0.18       0.23      0.23       0.00%
  Output     9.29     10.31     10.68     10.60       -0.75%
   (mln                                            
  tonnes)                                          
   Cane      8.24     9.16       9.25      9.25       0.00%
   sugar                                           
   Beet      1.05     1.15       1.43      1.35       -5.59%
   sugar                                           
  Imports    2.29     2.43       2.90      2.90       0.00%
   (mln                                            
  tonnes)                                          
  Ending    -3.44     -2.54     -1.77     -1.85          
  Stocks                                           
   (mln                                            
  tonnes)                                          
  Edible                                                 
   oils                                            
  Output    27.17     27.28     26.11     25.91       -0.77%
   (mln                                            
  tonnes)                                          
  Soybean   16.33     15.87     14.70     14.70       0.00%
    oil                                            
 Rapeseed    5.68     5.94       5.93      5.70       -3.88%
  Peanut     2.98     3.12       3.07      3.07       0.00%
    oil                                            
  Imports    5.78     6.11       6.45      6.52       1.09%
   (mln                                            
  tonnes)                                          
 Palm oil    3.34     3.58       3.90      4.00       2.56%
 Rapeseed    0.80     1.07       1.00      0.90      -10.00%
  Soybean    0.71     0.48       0.50      0.50       0.00%
    oil                                            
  Ending     0.12     -0.28     -1.05     -1.17          
  Stocks                                           
   (mln                                            
  tonnes)                                          
 
    
    

 (Reporting by Dominique Patton and Hallie Gu; editing by
Richard Pullin and Christian Schmollinger)
  
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