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UPDATE 2-China raises forecast for 2017/18 corn deficit on lower output
October 12, 2017 / 4:13 AM / 10 days ago

UPDATE 2-China raises forecast for 2017/18 corn deficit on lower output

    * Corn output seen lower on reduced govt support
    * Consumption to grow on new ethanol policy
    * Soybean output seen higher thanks to weather

 (Changes headline, adds detail on corn prices)
    By Dominique Patton
    BEIJING, Oct 12 (Reuters) - China on Thursday increased the
forecast for its deficit in corn supply in the 2017/18 crop year
to 4.31 million tonnes from the 890,000 tonnes predicted last
month, stoked by lower-than expected output and higher
anticipated demand.
    Corn output is expected to drop to 210.1 million tonnes
versus last month's forecast of 212.48 million tonnes, the
agriculture ministry said, adding that less land had been
planted with corn than earlier thought following reduced
government support.
    Corn consumption will come in at 215.62 million tonnes,
compared with last month's forecast of 214.57 million tonnes,
thanks to stronger-than-anticipated demand from ethanol plants,
the ministry said in its monthly Chinese Agricultural Supply and
Demand Estimates (CASDE). 
    Chinese state media announced last month that Beijing plans
to roll out blending of ethanol across the country's gasoline
supply.
    The deficit in supply in the world's top consumer of grains
could support prices that have been under pressure from the
recently started harvest. Dalian corn futures have lost
around 1 percent this week as the harvest in most regions gets
underway.
    Some farmers plan to hold their crop back from the market,
however, betting that prices could rally later in the season.

    The larger deficit is also good news for Beijing, which has
been trying to scale back its production of corn and still needs
to get rid of millions of tonnes of ageing corn held in state
warehouses after a years-long stockpiling programme. 
    China's crop year for grains runs from October to September.
    Meanwhile, the nation's 2017/18 soybean output is seen at
14.94 million tonnes, up from last month's forecast of 14.68
million tonnes thanks to a slightly higher planted acreage and
good growing conditions that have boosted yields.
    Farmers have also planted superior varieties of soybeans
this year with higher protein content, the ministry said. 
    
    
          2015/201  2016/2017   2017/2018  2017/2018  Percentage
             6      (estimated  (forecast  (forecast    change
                     in Oct.)   in Sep.)   in Oct.)   
  Corn                                                          
 Planted   38.12      36.76       35.5       35.1         -1.13%
 acreage                                              
  (mln                                                
 hectare                                              
   s)                                                 
 Output    224.63     219.57      212.5     210.11        -1.12%
  (mln                                                
 tonnes)                                              
 Imports    3.17       2.3         1.5        1.5          0.00%
  (mln                                                
 tonnes)                                              
 Ending     33.7        11        -0.89      -4.31              
 Stocks                                               
  (mln                                                
 tonnes)                                              
 Soybean                                                        
 Planted    6.59       7.21       8.11       8.194         1.04%
 acreage                                              
  (mln                                                
 hectare                                              
   s)                                                 
 Output    11.61      12.94       14.68      14.94         1.77%
  (mln                                                
 tonnes)                                              
 Imports   83.23      92.87       94.5       94.5          0.00%
  (mln                                                
 tonnes)                                              
 Ending    -1.95      -1.14       -0.25      0.01               
 Stocks                                               
  (mln                                                
 tonnes)                                              
 Cotton                                                         
 Planted    3.27       3.1        3.29       3.29          0.00%
 acreage                                              
  (mln                                                
 hectare                                              
   s)                                                 
 Output     4.93       4.82       5.28       5.35          1.33%
  (mln                                                
 tonnes)                                              
 Imports    0.96       1.11         1          1           0.00%
  (mln                                                
 tonnes)                                              
 Ending    11.11       8.94       7.06       7.06               
 Stocks                                               
  (mln                                                
 tonnes)                                              
  Sugar                                                         
 Planted    1.42       1.35       1.47       1.47          0.00%
 acreage                                              
  (mln                                                
 hectare                                              
   s)                                                 
  Cane      1.3        1.18       1.28       1.28          0.00%
  Beet      0.13       0.17        0.2        0.2          0.00%
 Output     8.7        9.29       10.47      10.47         0.00%
  (mln                                                
 tonnes)                                              
  Cane      7.85       8.24       9.23       9.23          0.00%
  sugar                                               
  Beet      0.85       1.05       1.24       1.24          0.00%
  sugar                                               
 Imports    3.73       2.35        3.2        3.2          0.00%
  (mln                                                
 tonnes)                                              
 Ending    -2.92      -3.48       -1.4       -1.4               
 Stocks                                               
  (mln                                                
 tonnes)                                              
 
    
    
    
    

 (Reporting by Dominique Patton; Editing by Joseph Radford)
  

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