February 14, 2012 / 4:01 AM / 8 years ago

TABLE-Major Chinese developers' January 2012 sales

By Alex Frew McMillan	
    HONG KONG, Feb 14 (Reuters) - Mainland property developers have seen sales plunge in
January, with business off by more than half for the bulk of home builders, compared with the
same month in 2011. 	
    Business was particularly poor last month because of the Lunar New Year holiday, a slow time
for sales. The festival fell in January in 2012, but was in February last year. 	
    Danny Bao, China property analyst at Daiwa Capital Markets, expects sales to be weak in the
first half of the year, though the rate of decline should moderate after February. 	
    "We will hopefully see some improvement in March," Bao said, with the pace of decline
shrinking to single digits. "You want to see sequential improvement. The second half will be
very close to last year's figures," he added.	
    This year may prove to be a mirror image of 2011, when sales were strong in the first half
of the year but suffered as it wore on, with the mainland's austerity measures deterring home
    Daiwa anticipates a 10 percent drop in overall sales volume this year, with the biggest
developers winning market share off smaller competitors. Bao also expects a drop of 10 percent
in Chinese home prices, which have now fallen for five straight months, according to a private
    Evergrande Real Estate Group anticipates essentially flat sales for the year
ahead, while luxury-home developer Chinese Overseas Land & Investment 
is predicting its sales will slide 8 percent in a year it admits will be "challenging" for
developers. Most other developers are waiting until they report earnings in
March to announce their 2012 sales target. China Vanke does not typically disclose
its target publicly, so the target given here is an analyst's estimate.	
    Here are the January sales for the major Chinese developers that have reported so far. China
Overseas Land's figures convert to 3.2 billion yuan ($508 million) for January and 70.7 billion
yuan ($11.2 billion) for 2011 at the current exchange rate. 	
    (Sales revenues in billions of yuan, or billions of HK$ for China Overseas Land &
Investment; percent change from a year ago)	
    Company                 RIC    January   Percent   2011    Percent   2012	
                                    Sales    Change   Sales    Change  Target                   
China Vanke              000002.SZ   12.2    -39.0    121.5     +12.4     120*	
Evergrande Real Estate     3333.HK   2.22    -77.3     80.4     +59.4      80	
China Overseas Land       	
       & Investment        0688.HK   3.90    -50.0     87.1     +29.8      80	
Longfor Properties         0960.HK   1.18    -72.3     38.3     +14.8      na	
Shimao Property Holdings   0813.HK   0.91    -70.0     30.7      +0.7      na	
Guangzhou R&F Properties   2777.HK   1.23    -57.0     30.0      -6.8      na	
* Analyst forecast
($1 = 6.2971 Chinese yuan)	
 (Editing by Jacqueline Wong)
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