Sept 8 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slipped about 2%
on Tuesday, following a 7% drop in crude prices, on a rise in
gas output and forecasts for cooler weather and lower demand in
late September.
That gas price decline came despite a daily increase in
liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports following hurricane
shutdowns in late August and record sales to Mexico.
Front-month gas futures fell 6.1 cents to $2.527 per
million British thermal units at 9:46 a.m. EDT (1346 GMT).
Gas speculators boosted their net long positions on the New
York Mercantile and Intercontinental Exchanges for a sixth week
in a row last week to their highest since January 2018 on
expectations energy demand will rise as the economy rebounds
once state governments lift more coronavirus-linked lockdowns.
Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S.
states was on track to rise to 88.0 billion cubic feet per day
(bcfd) in September, up from a three-month low of 87.6 bcfd in
August.
With exports rising and temperatures expected to remain
warmer-than-normal through mid September, Refinitiv projected
U.S. demand, including exports, would rise from an average of
84.0 bcfd this week to 85.0 bcfd next week. That is higher than
Refinitiv's forecasts on Friday before the long U.S. Labor Day
weekend.
In late September, however, demand is expected to decline as
air conditioning use drops as the weather cools.
The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export terminals was
on track to rise over 1.0 bcfd to 5.0 bcfd on Tuesday, the
biggest one-day gain since March, as Cheniere Energy Inc's
Sabine Pass plant in Louisiana continues to ramp up
after shutting for Hurricane Laura.
Pipeline exports to Mexico were on track to rise to 6.2 bcfd
in September, topping August's 5.9-bcfd record high.
Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year
Sep 4 Aug 28 Sep 4 average
(Forecast) (Actual) Sep 4
U.S. natgas storage (bcf): +60 +35 +80 +68 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Norm
Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs 26 23 10 24 31
U.S. GFS CDDs 124 137 164 130 114
U.S. GFS TDDs 150 160 174 154 145
Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week Current Week Next Week This Week Five-Year
Last Year Average For
Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 87.0 88.4 88.3 93.2 79.7
U.S. Imports from Canada 6.3 5.7 6.7 7.8 7.9
U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
Total U.S. Supply 93.3 94.1 95.0 101.0 87.7
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.4 2.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico 6.2 6.1 6.0 5.4 4.5
U.S. LNG Exports 2.9 4.3 5.7 5.9 2.1
U.S. Commercial 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.7
U.S. Residential 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.7
U.S. Power Plant 38.1 35.1 34.7 37.5 32.0
U.S. Industrial 21.5 21.6 21.4 21.2 20.6
U.S. Plant Fuel 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4
U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9
U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Total U.S. Consumption 74.3 71.6 71.2 73.6 67.4
Total U.S. Demand 85.4 84.0 85.0 87.3 76.3 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
Henry Hub 1.80 2.32
Transco Z6 New York 1.38 1.58
PG&E Citygate 3.67 3.62
Dominion South 1.34 1.45
Chicago Citygate 1.96 2.19
Algonquin Citygate 1.75 1.58
SoCal Citygate 7.97 5.01
Waha Hub 1.69 2.08 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
New England 20.50 22.75
PJM West 21.25 25.50
Ercot North 25.25 25.75
Mid C 37.40 105.00
Palo Verde 120.00 97.00
SP-15 102.00 78.00
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino)
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