Sept 15 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures were little
changed on Tuesday as forecasts for milder weather over the next
two weeks offset an output decline as producers shut some Gulf
of Mexico wells before Hurricane Sally smashes into the coast.
Sally is expected to hit near the Mississippi-Alabama border
early Wednesday. Entergy Corp, the biggest power company
in Mississippi, still has about 50,000 customers without service
in southwestern Louisiana since late August from Hurricane
Laura.
Front-month gas futures rose 0.5 cents, or 0.2%, to
$2.315 per million British thermal units at 8:10 a.m. EDT (1210
GMT).
Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S.
states was on track to slide to a 16-week low of 84.6 billion
cubic feet per day (bcfd) on Tuesday due to Sally-related
shutdowns. The U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental
Enforcement (BSEE) said almost 0.7 bcfd, or about 25%, of Gulf
of Mexico gas production was shut-in on Monday.
With cooler weather coming, Refinitiv projected demand,
including exports, would fall from 84.8 bcfd this week to 81.9
bcfd next week.
The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants,
meanwhile, has averaged 5.2 bcfd so far in September. That is
the most in a month since May and up for a second month in a row
for the first time since hitting the 8.7-bcfd record high in
February.
The LNG-export gain comes as Cheniere Energy Inc's
Sabine Pass in Louisiana ramps up after shutting in late August
for Hurricane Laura and as global gas prices rise, making U.S.
gas more attractive in Europe and Asia
following months of U.S. cargo cancellations due to coronavirus
demand destruction.
Cameron LNG's export plant in Louisiana, however, has
remained shut since Aug. 27 due to lingering power outages from
Laura. Some analysts say the plant could remain shut through mid
October.
Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year
Sep 11 Sep 4 Sep 11 average
(Forecast) (Actual) Sep 11
U.S. natgas storage (bcf): +70 +70 +82 +77 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Norm
Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs 43 48 14 24 48
U.S. GFS CDDs 81 79 149 130 92
U.S. GFS TDDs 124 127 163 154 140
Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week Current Week Next Week This Week Five-Year
Last Year Average For
Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 88.4 86.8 87.0 93.3 79.7
U.S. Imports from Canada 5.8 6.1 6.8 7.8 7.9
U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
Total U.S. Supply 94.2 92.9 93.8 100.0 87.7
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.5 2.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico 6.0 5.8 6.0 5.6 4.5
U.S. LNG Exports 4.8 6.8 6.8 6.5 2.1
U.S. Commercial 4.8 4.9 5.3 4.7 4.7
U.S. Residential 4.0 4.2 5.0 3.8 3.7
U.S. Power Plant 34.3 33.2 28.8 35.8 32.0
U.S. Industrial 21.6 21.5 21.7 21.2 20.6
U.S. Plant Fuel 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4
U.S. Pipe Distribution 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.9
U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Total U.S. Consumption 71.0 70.1 67.0 71.3 67.4
Total U.S. Demand 84.0 84.8 81.9 86.4 76.3 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
Henry Hub 2.18 1.93
Transco Z6 New York 1.26 1.26
PG&E Citygate 3.44 3.27
Dominion South 1.18 1.16
Chicago Citygate 1.95 1.78
Algonquin Citygate 1.38 1.50
SoCal Citygate 2.65 1.87
Waha Hub 1.59 1.41 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
New England 20.50 18.50
PJM West 20.75 18.50
Ercot North 29.50 23.50
Mid C 32.00 24.50
Palo Verde 33.25 45.80
SP-15 36.00 27.75
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Steve Orlofsky)
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