July 5, 2019 / 8:56 AM / 12 days ago

CEE MARKETS-Central European forex eases in subdued trade, eyes on U.S. data

    * CEE currencies seen firming slightly on ECB easing-POLL
    * U.S. non-farm payroll data awaited
    * Romania's central bank keeps rate on hold as expected
    * Trade muted, Czech market closed

    By Radu-Sorin Marinas
    BUCHAREST, July 5 (Reuters) - Central European currencies
edged down in thin trade on Friday, tracking the euro's moves,
with Czech markets closed for a holiday and traders waiting for
the publication of U.S. jobs data.
    By 0840 GMT, the Hungarian forint led regional
losses, falling 0.2% against the euro as the Romanian leu
 slipped 0.1% and the Polish zloty traded
marginally lower at 4.244.
    Regional stocks were mixed, with Budapest gaining
0.4% percent, while Warsaw was 0.2% lower on the day.
    Earlier in the session, Hungary sold 5-year and 10-year
bonds, but scrapped a 3-year bond auction.
    A Reuters poll sees Central Europe's main currencies 
firming slightly against the euro in the coming year, as central
banks in the region point to stable rates ahead in contrast to
the easing signalled in Frankfurt and Washington.
    A surge in wages has boosted economic growth in Central
Europe, accelerating inflation, in contrast with a slowdown in
the euro zone.
    On Thursday, Romania's central bank kept its main interest
rate unchanged at 2.50% despite rising inflation,
with central bank governor Mugur Isarescu saying the rate was
high enough considering the recent firming of the leu currency.
    "(The) governor ... cited 'significant' capital inflows in
yesterday's press briefing which followed the key rate decision,
leading him to state 'we don’t want the exchange rate to
appreciate'. For now, the market doesn’t appear to be listening,
as selling interest in euro/leu still prevails," ING said.
    Elsewhere, Hungary's industrial output rose by
an annual 8.7 percent in May based on preliminary unadjusted
data, well above analyst forecasts.
    "The latest industrial figures can again be seen as proof
that so far the performance of the sector has proved
surprisingly resilient to global (especially German) slowdown,
mainly stemming from trade conflicts and increased uncertainties
in the European business sector." Erste said.
    

            CEE       SNAPSHOT    AT 1010                     
            MARKETS               CET               
                      CURRENCIES                              
                      Latest      Previous   Daily  Change
                      bid         close      chang  in 2019
                                             e      
 Czech      <EURCZK=      0.0000    25.4660  -0.02      +0.93%
 crown      >                                  %    
 Hungary    <EURHUF=    323.2900   322.6500  -0.20      -0.68%
 forint     >                                    %  
 Polish     <EURPLN=      4.2440     4.2430  -0.02      +1.07%
 zloty      >                                    %  
 Romanian   <EURRON=      4.7209     4.7167  -0.09      -1.42%
 leu        >                                    %  
 Croatian   <EURHRK=      7.3970     7.3985   +0.0      +0.18%
 kuna       >                                   2%  
 Serbian    <EURRSD=    117.5600   117.7500   +0.1      +0.63%
 dinar      >                                   6%  
 Note:      calculated from                  1800             
 daily                                       CET    
 change                                             
                                                              
                      Latest      Previous   Daily  Change
                                  close      chang  in 2019
                                             e      
 Prague                  1052.10  1052.1000   +0.0      +6.64%
                                                0%  
 Budapest               41133.74   40972.92   +0.3      +5.10%
                                                9%  
 Warsaw                  2353.23    2356.49  -0.14      +3.36%
                                                 %  
 Bucharest               8907.37    8917.19  -0.11     +20.64%
                                                 %  
 Ljubljana  <.SBITOP      891.46     890.47   +0.1     +10.84%
            >                                   1%  
 Zagreb                  1893.91    1891.84   +0.1      +8.30%
                                                1%  
 Belgrade   <.BELEX1      741.91     742.59  -0.09      -2.60%
            5>                                   %  
 Sofia                    582.50     582.29   +0.0      -2.01%
                                                4%  
                      BONDS                                   
                      Yield       Yield      Sprea  Daily
                                             d      
                      (bid)       change     vs     change in
                                             Bund   
 Czech                                              spread
 Republic                                           
   2-year   <CZ2YT=R      1.5990     0.1200   +235      +12bps
            R>                                 bps  
   5-year   <CZ5YT=R      1.2400     0.0020   +194       +0bps
            R>                                 bps  
   10-year  <CZ10YT=      1.4890    -0.0050   +188       -1bps
            RR>                                bps  
 Poland                                                       
   2-year   <PL2YT=R      1.5830     0.0040   +233       +1bps
            R>                                 bps  
   5-year   <PL5YT=R      1.8710     0.0010   +257       +0bps
            R>                                 bps  
   10-year  <PL10YT=      2.2830     0.0010   +268       +0bps
            RR>                                bps  
            FORWARD   RATE        AGREEMENT                   
                      3x6         6x9        9x12   3M
                                                    interbank
 Czech Rep                  2.17       2.10   2.00        2.17
            <PRIBOR=                                
            >                                       
 Hungary                    0.29       0.41   0.49        0.25
                                                    
 Poland                     1.74       1.73   1.70        1.72
                                                    
 Note: FRA  are for ask prices                                
 quotes                                             
 *************************************************            
 *************                                      
 

 (Editing by Andrew Heavens)
  
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