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EMERGING MARKETS-Emerging stocks at 1-week high, dollar pressures currencies
October 3, 2017 / 9:09 AM / 18 days ago

EMERGING MARKETS-Emerging stocks at 1-week high, dollar pressures currencies

LONDON, Oct 3 (Reuters) - Emerging equities rose to a one-week high on Tuesday, following gains in developed markets after strong U.S. activity data, but a firmer dollar kept currencies such as the lira and rand under pressure.

MSCI’s benchmark emerging stocks index rose 0.8 percent, on track for a third straight day of gains, with global equities pushing to fresh all-time highs.

The moves followed a record close on Wall Street after U.S. manufacturing activity surged to a near 13-1/2-year high in September. But the upbeat data lifted the dollar and U.S. 10-year Treasury yields, which weighed on emerging currencies.

Kiran Kowshik, an emerging market strategist at UniCredit, said the market was pricing in a recovery in the “Trump trade” whereby President Donald Trump’s promised tax cuts and spending splurge are expected to prove reflationary.

“Also the very strong PMI out of the U.S. suggests growth is holding up quite well,” he said.

Emerging equities were also underpinned by Monday’s strong manufacturing activity data from China and emerging Europe, with markets such as Hong Kong catching up after being closed for a public holiday on Monday.

Hong Kong stocks surged 2.2 percent, led by Chinese banks and insurers after China’s central bank cut reserve ratios , whilst China’s stronger-than-expected September factory activity boosted materials.

South Korea and Chinese mainland markets remained closed.

Indian shares rose 0.6 percent after manufacturing activity expanded for a second straight month, whilst Polish and South African stocks rose 0.7 percent.

On the currency side, the Turkish lira was one of the biggest fallers, weakening 0.6 percent. Annual inflation rose 11.2 percent, the third highest level this year.

“The currency we are most bearish on is the lira ... you are seeing broad-based inflationary pressures,” said Kowshik. “It really tells you that while the central bank has kept rates high, they probably need to turn more hawkish.”

The South African rand slipped 0.3 percent against the dollar and the Indonesian rupiah hit a 10-month low.

The Indian rupee fell 0.3 percent ahead of Wednesday’s central bank meeting at which it is expected to hold rates steady.

Romania’s central bank is also expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a record low of 1.75 percent at Tuesday’s meeting, with the leu flat against the euro near a one-month high.

JPMorgan analysts noted that the central bank had sold euros this year to stabilise the exchange rate.

“Several factors justify monetary tightening, but the NBR has refrained from moving in that direction mainly on concerns that the (leu) would strengthen versus the euro as its regional peers and the ECB are dovish,” they said.

For GRAPHIC on emerging market FX performance 2017, see tmsnrt.rs/2e7eoml For GRAPHIC on MSCI emerging index performance 2017, see tmsnrt.rs/2dZbdP5

For CENTRAL EUROPE market report, see

For TURKISH market report, see

For RUSSIAN market report, see)

Emerging Markets Prices from Reuters Equities Latest Net Chg % Chg % Chg

on year

Morgan Stanley Emrg Mkt Indx 1091.96 +8.99 +0.83 +26.64

Czech Rep 1052.36 +1.62 +0.15 +14.19

Poland 2488.22 +18.64 +0.75 +27.74

Hungary 37829.67 +77.82 +0.21 +18.21

Romania 7922.14 +27.88 +0.35 +11.81

Greece 749.93 +3.45 +0.46 +16.51

Russia 1131.91 +3.22 +0.29 -1.77

South Africa 49934.15 +324.57 +0.65 +13.74

Turkey 04427.77 +497.10 +0.48 +33.64

China 3349.22 +9.57 +0.29 +7.91

India 31487.71 +203.99 +0.65 +18.26

Currencies Latest Prev Local Local

close currency currency

% change % change

in 2017

Czech Rep 25.93 25.94 +0.04 +4.16

Poland 4.31 4.31 -0.05 +2.17

Hungary 311.44 312.02 +0.19 -0.84

Romania 4.58 4.58 -0.00 -1.06

Serbia 119.10 119.04 -0.05 +3.57

Russia 57.98 57.87 -0.18 +5.67

Kazakhstan 342.30 341.17 -0.33 -2.53

Ukraine 26.70 26.60 -0.37 +1.12

South Africa 13.65 13.60 -0.39 +0.57

Kenya 103.15 103.20 +0.05 -0.76

Israel 3.54 3.54 -0.07 +8.83

Turkey 3.58 3.56 -0.61 -1.57

China 6.65 6.65 -0.00 +4.35

India 65.53 65.31 -0.34 +3.69

Brazil 3.15 3.15 -0.03 +3.12

Mexico 18.26 18.23 -0.15 +13.47

Debt Index Strip Spd Chg %Rtn Index

Sov‘gn Debt EMBIG 303 -2 .01 8 03.90 1

Reporting by Claire Milhench; Graphic by Karin Strohecker

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