2007 EU carbon data due out April 1

LONDON (Reuters) - The European Commission “is likely” to release European energy-intensive industry’s 2007 carbon emissions data at 1200 local time in Brussels (1000 GMT) on Tuesday, April 1, the Commission said on Friday.

The publication may come on Tuesday or “soon afterwards” depending on how quickly the Commission has gathered a threshold of 80 percent of the data, it added.

Under the EU’s carbon market, energy-intensive industry has to submit an emissions permit called an EU Allowance (EUA) for every ton of carbon dioxide emissions.

Emissions data is therefore closely watched because it shows the level of demand for such permits and so the appropriate carbon price.

While the first phase of the carbon market from 2005-2007 was oversupplied with carbon emissions permits, causing a carbon price collapse, next Tuesday’s 2007 data will still be closely watched as it will shed light on expected 2008 emissions, and so help inform the current carbon price.

2007 emissions should be in the range of 2,100-2,140 million tons of carbon dioxide, and that would imply 2008 emissions of 2180-2,220 million tons, Deutsche Bank analyst Mark Lewis said this week, assuming unchanged economic demand, weather and commodity prices.

That is much higher than a 2008 permit supply of 2,083 million tons, a shortage which should drive up EUA prices to 35 euros per tons during 2008-12, the second phase of the scheme, Lewis added.

Benchmark EUA contracts for 2008 delivery were trading down 14 cents at 22.12 euros ($34.87) at Friday lunchtime.

The emissions data will be publishedhere