February 12, 2010 / 11:04 AM / 10 years ago

UPDATE 1-Euro zone GDP recovery falters, bumpy road ahead

(Updates with analysts’ quotes, details)

* Euro zone Q4 GDP up 0.1 pct q/q, down 2.1 pct yr/yr

* Germany stagnates, France grows; Italy, Spain shrink

* Dec industrial production -1.7 pct m/m, -5.0 y/y

* Consumer spending tight as unemployment grows

By Marcin Grajewski

BRUSSELS, Feb 12 (Reuters) - The euro zone’s economic recovery lost steam in the final quarter of last year as gross domestic product barely expanded, with France the only one of the currency area’s four biggest economies to post growth.

The 16-country area’s GDP edged up 0.1 percent in the October-December period compared with the previous quarter, and contracted by 2.1 percent from the last quarter of 2008, EU data office Eurostat said in a flash estimate. [ID:nBRQ009717]

Analysts polled by Reuters had expected quarterly growth of 0.3 percent and a year-on-year decline of 1.9 percent.

Over the full year 2009, euro zone GDP fell 4.0 percent.

“It is disappointing — only a few countries delivered, mainly France,” said Juergen Michels, economist at Citigroup.

The bleak figures could help deter the European Central Bank from raising interest rates and press governments to maintain fiscal stimulus programmes that bolster their economies.

The euro zone figure was dragged down by Germany, the area’s biggest economy, which registered quarter-on-quarter stagnation.

In France, the zone’s second-biggest economy, GDP grew by a better-than-expected 0.6 percent on the back of robust consumer spending. The other largest economies, Italy and Spain, contracted by 0.2 and 0.1 percent respectively.

Recession continued in Ireland, Greece and Cyprus, while Portugal stagnated. Austria and the Netherlands expanded.

By comparison, the United States economy grew by 1.4 percent quarter-on-quarter in the same period and by 0.1 percent in yearly terms.

In the third quarter, the euro zone economy expanded by 0.4 percent quarter-on-quarter.

An uncertain growth outlook is expected to keep the European Central Bank’s main interest rate at a record low of 1.0 percent until at least the fourth quarter of 2010, economists say.

But the bank has already started to pull back its emergency lending measures introduced during the financial crisis.

“The likely fragility of the recovery means that both governments and the ECB need to be wary about withdrawing stimulus measures too soon or too aggressively,” said Howard Archer, chief European economist at IHS Global insight.

“This underpins our view that the ECB will keep interest rates down at 1.0 percent until at least late 2010 and the bank could very well delay lifting them until 2011,” he added.


Analysts say any recovery from the biggest economic crisis since World War Two is likely to be limited as growing unemployment forces consumers to rein in spending.

The euro zone’s jobless rate rose to 10 percent of the workforce in December, its highest since August 1998.

“It seems likely consumer and fixed investment spending continued to contract, while this was offset by positive contributions from net exports, inventories and government consumption,” said Nick Kounis, economist at Fortis.

“Recovery in the euro zone is continuing, but at a snail’s pace,” he added.

While GDP growth depends largely on government spending as tens of billions of euros are pumped into the economy, bond investors are growing increasingly nervous over deteriorating public finances in many countries.

Financial problems in Greece have sparked talk about a bailout for the country and raised doubts about stability in the currency area.

Industrial production figures compounded the gloomy picture.

Eurostat said euro zone production tumbled 1.7 percent in December from the previous month, defying expectations of growth, and sank 5.0 percent annually. [ID:nBRQ009716]

It was the biggest monthly decline since February 2009, when production nose-dived 3.8 percent.

Some analysts cautioned that bad weather had played a role in December’s poor performance. (Editing by Dale Hudson)

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